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What can the Phillies do to improve the team in 2012? With $114 million already committed to 10 players, there isn't much wiggle room with the Phillies payroll. Obviously lots of things will change over the next few months, but I'm going to give you a rough idea of what the Phillies can and cannot spend.
So how much wiggle room is there with the Phillies payroll?
Well, let's begin by removing the salaries of the Phillies big free agents (Madson, Rollins, Oswalt, Ibanez, and Lidge). That drops the Phillies team payroll by $46.75 million. Then we add $14.5 million for salary increases to existing player contracts. That gives the Phillies $32.25 million just to maintain the same payroll as 2011.
What can they do with that $32.25 million? There is obviously some tinkering to be done with the bullpen and bench, but the focus of this discussion will simply be free agents.
Phillies free agents
Ryan Madson:
Even though Madson is a Scott Boras client, the Phillies are going to try hard to keep him with the Phillies. As a legitimate big league closer, Madson stands to make something in the neighborhood of $15 million.
Jimmy Rollins:
For a few reasons we can get into later articles, I will say that Rollins will not be wearing Phillies pinstripes in 2011.
Roy Oswalt:
The Phillies will decline the $16 million option for Oswalt next year and will buy him out for $2 million (which I already included in the payroll total). The Phillies may try to bring Oswalt back, but it won’t be for $16 million.
Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge:
These two are as good as gone.
What's left?
If the Phillies pay $15 million to Madson, it leaves them with $17.25 million to replace shortstop, fourth starter, left field, and middle relief. Let’s see what it might cost to fill each position.
Replacing Phillies free agents
Left field:
John Mayberry earned himself a starting spot in left field in 2012. Before Howard returns, we will probably see Francisco and a combination of bench players in left while Mayberry plays first base. The Phillies may grab a free agent bench guy to cover Howard's absence, but they probably won’t shop for full time left-fielder.
Additional cost: $0
Shortstop:
If the Phillies part ways with Jimmy Rollins, Freddy Galvis is the shortstop of the future. But he is probably still one year away, so the Phillies may look to sign someone like a Rafael Furcal or Edgar Renteria.
Additional cost: Around $5 million.
On the flip side, keeping Rollins would cost upwards of $10 million a year.
Middle Reliever:
The Phillies don't have to go shopping to replace Lidge for now, especially if Jose Contreras is healthy next season. Whoever the Phillies do sign probably won't be a big name, anyway.
Additional cost: $0
#4 starter:
Remember a guy named Joe Blanton? He is still under contract and definitely a viable 4 or 5 starter. And Vance Worley pitched well enough to take the other spot, so the Phillies really don't need another starter. Kyle Kendrick is also available to start if anyone gets injured. If the Phillies choose to keep Oswalt, it will cost them about $10 million dollars in addition to the $2 million buyout. Obviously this has a huge impact on other moves the Phillies can make.
Additional cost: $0 or $10 million dollars.
The bottom line
Money left if Oswalt returns: $2.5 million
Money left if Oswalt does NOT return: $12.5 million
As you can see, $2.5 million doesn't give the Phillies much to play with, but letting Oswalt walk gives the Phillies quite a bit of flexibility. The Phillies have 5 starters, three three aces, and a decent (albeit young) bullpen, so I think the Phillies should focus their attention elsewhere. Let's just see how it plays out...
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