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I can’t help but look at the Cardinals and see who the Phillies once were in 2008. The 2008 Phillies can barely take out the garbage for the 2011 version, yet the ’08 Phillies ended their season with a parade down Broad Street while the current squad has already flown south for the winter.
I would like to follow the inspirational words of famous philosopher Mark McGuire who so eloquently stated, ”I'm not here to discuss the past... I'm here to be positive.”
But I just can’t help myself. I need to find out what happened to the Phillies magic.
What happened to the Phillies offense the last two postseasons?
The answer to this question is not like finding the Bermuda Triangle. Sure, the pitching could have been better, but the blame for two straight under performing seasons goes square on the shoulders of the Phillies offense. Five of the eight position players from 2008 are still here, but today’s offense is a shell of its former self.
The story of the last two postseasons is a dark and dreary tale in which the Phillies have declined in nearly every offensive category. The drop has been consistent and significant. Compared to the 2008 team, the 2011 Phillies offense dropped by 33 points in average, 79 points in OBP, 114 points in SLG, and 194 points in OPS.
But the comparison is not just 2008 vs. 2011. The real comparison is between the 2008/2009 World Series teams and the 2010/2011 teams.
Comparing the 2008/2009 Phillies with the 2010/2011 Phils
Let's compare the two groups starting with some basic stats:
The 2010/2011 Phillies did not produce base runners
Batting average
2008/2009 - .253
2010/2011 - .219
Walk percentage
2008/2009 - 1 per 8.5 PA (11.7%)
2010/2011 - 1 per 13.2 PA (7.6%)
On-base percentage
2008/2009 - .347
2010/2011 - .294
That's a drop of 34 points in average, 53 points in OBS, and 4.7 more plate appearances between walks. The Phillies have followed the equation of less hits + less walks = less base runners = less scoring chances = less runs. You can see why Ruben Amaro challenged the team to find a new approach. Not only were they not hitting, they were also undisciplined and were unable to manufacture any rallies. Equally as frightening was the Phillies lack of power:
The Phillies' power vanished
SLG
2008/2009 - .461
2010/2011 - .316
OPS
2008/2009 - .808
2010/2011 - .610
Xtra base hit percentage
2008/2009 - 1 per 9.3 AB (10.7%)
2010/2011 - 1 per 16.2 AB (6.2%)
HR percentage
2008/2009 - 1 per 21.6 AB (4.6%)
2010/2011 - 1 per 64.7 AB (1.5%)
That’s a drop of 145 points in slugging percentage, 198 points in OPS, 6.9 more at-bats between extra base hits, and 43.1 more at-bats between home runs. Less base runners and less power leads us to this:
The 2010/2011 Phillies did not knock in runs
RBI percentage
2008/2009
- 1 per 6.7 AB (14.8%)
2010/2011 - 1 per 9.4 AB (10.6%)
2.7 more at-bats between RBIs may not seem like much, but it is deadly in a five game series. Let's use the NLDS against the Cardinals (in which the Phillies had 164 at-bats) as an example.
The 2008/2009 Phillies would have knocked in 24.3 runs and the 2008/2009 Phils would have scored 17.4. That's nearly seven less runs. Considering that the Phillies lost by a total of three runs in games 2-5, seven runs is the difference between moving on and going home.
Why did the Phillies go home early the last two seasons? They didn't hit, didn't walk, didn't hit home runs or extra base hits, and they didn't knock in runs. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure that out.
See below for all the stats since 2008:
Phillies Postseason Offense 2008-2011 |
| |
G |
PA |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
| 2008 |
14 |
531 |
465 |
64 |
121 |
27 |
2 |
19 |
60 |
61 |
101 |
14 |
4 |
0.26 |
0.348 |
0.449 |
0.798 |
| 2009 |
15 |
568 |
485 |
82 |
120 |
24 |
5 |
25 |
81 |
68 |
113 |
11 |
2 |
0.247 |
0.345 |
0.472 |
0.817 |
| 2010 |
9 |
338 |
289 |
33 |
62 |
14 |
0 |
4 |
28 |
31 |
70 |
10 |
1 |
0.215 |
0.309 |
0.304 |
0.614 |
| 2011 |
5 |
176 |
164 |
21 |
37 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
20 |
8 |
29 |
2 |
3 |
0.226 |
0.269 |
0.335 |
0.604 |
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