Replacing Rollins? Phillies better not look at free agent shortstops
by Scott Butler 11/10/11

To keep Rollins or not to keep Rollins? What do the Phillies do at shortstop?

Shortstop is one of two huge off season questions for the Phillies, and unfortunately Jim Thome can’t play shortstop. My first thought was to wave goodbye to Jimmy. If I spoke to J-Roll about a month ago, it would have sounded something like this:

“Thanks for your time, Jimmy, but we need to change the attitude on this team and you are the odd man out. Now that you can’t hit, we can say goodbye to that “as Jimmy goes, the team goes” stuff. Besides, I’ve had enough of your slow jogs to first, and unwillingness and inability to produce quality at-bats.”

I quickly changed my mind after glancing at the available free agent shortstops. The pickings are not good from the 8 free agent shortstops outside of Jose Reyes. But first…

…forget about Jose Reyes

Jose Reyes is far and away the best shortstop available and an enormous upgrade over Rollins. But money doesn’t grow on trees quite as quickly as in Yankee-land. Reyes is not just a replacement for Rollins; he would mean a complete change in the Phillies off season strategy. Grabbing Jose Reyes deserves its own discussion altogether and I’m not going to touch it for now, but suffice it to say that I would rather spend my money elsewhere.

Back to Rollins and the other free agent shortstops. I’ll break it down into two simple categories, Defense and Offense.

Free Agent Shortstop Defense

Here's a look at the fielding percentages (just at shortstop) among the free agents (excluding Reyes).

Player	2011 Fielding Pct.	Career Fielding Pct.
Jimmy Rollins	.988	.984
John McDonald	.988	.988
Alex Gonzalez	.981	.972
Ronny Cedeno	.978	.970
Orlando Cabrera	.968	.975
Yuniesky Betancourt	.965	.970
Rafael Furcal	.964	.965
Edgar Renteria	.959	.970

If the Phillies part ways with Rollins, they will lose the best fielding shortstop of the free agent crop by far. Rollins was tied for first with John McDonald for the best fielding percentage at .988. And Rollins’ career fielding percentage is 9 points higher than anyone other than McDonald (who can’t hit and only played one year). Rollins isn’t as quick as he used to be, but he still has more range than most of them. By the way, Jimmy's .984 career fielding is better than Jose Reyes has done in any year.

Free Agent Shortstop Offense

Here are the 2011 offensive numbers for free agent shortstops.

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Rollins	142	567	87	152	22	2	16	63	58	59	30	0.268	0.338	0.399	0.736
McDonald	84	227	21	52	10	1	2	22	12	27	2	0.229	0.269	0.308	0.577
Gonzalez	149	564	59	136	27	1	15	56	22	126	2	0.241	0.27	0.372	0.642
Cedeno	128	413	43	103	25	3	2	32	30	93	2	0.249	0.297	0.339	0.636
Cabrera	151	604	87	165	32	3	25	92	44	119	17	0.273	0.332	0.460	0.792
Betancourt	152	556	51	140	27	3	13	68	16	63	4	0.252	0.271	0.381	0.652
Furcal	87	333	44	77	15	0	8	28	28	39	9	0.231	0.298	0.348	0.646
Renteria	96	299	34	75	14	0	5	36	24	65	4	0.251	0.306	0.348	0.654

Are there any good free agent options at shortstop?

Now that we've seen the numbers, let's see what options the Phils have other than Rollins. It's not difficult to narrow down most of the competition. We can immediately eliminate John McDonald who is 37 and has a .238 career average and hit .229 last year. Ronny Cedeno is out, as well, with relatively poor numbers across the board.

The Phillies are simply not going to throw any bad gloves behind this starting staff, so that rules out Furcal, Betancourt, and Renteria, who have pedestrian offensive totals anyway.

That leaves us with Gonzalez and Cabrera.

Gonzalez hit 15 homers (1 less than Rollins), his average (.241) was 27 points lower than Rollins, his on-base percentage (.270) was 68 points lower. and his defense is inferior. Sorry Alex, but you are simply not an upgrade.

Cabrera has a solid average (.273) and hit 25 HRs and knocked in 92, but he is slightly lower in on-base percentage with half the steals. Defensively his .975 career fielding percentage and .968 are suspect.

Conclusion

Orlando Cabrera is the only shortstop worth consideration, but he is not the answer. His power is nice, but he doesn't work the count, manufacture hits, or create runs, which is what the Phillies desperately need. And without a solid glove, what purpose would it really serve?

If the Phillies want a new shortstop, they will have to get a little creative. I'll do more digging on this over the off season, but here's one more nugget for you. Check out Wilson Valdez, whose fielding percentage (.971 last year and .980 career) is second only to Jimmy Rollins and compares offensively with everyone else. Would ya?

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Valdez	99	273	39	68	14	4	1	30	18	41	3	0.249	0.294	0.341	0.634


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