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If Vance Worley wasn't a household name before, tonight's complete game may have officially put the Phillies right-hander on the map. But is Vance Worley for real?
The numbers sure say he is. In 13 games, Worley is 7-1 with a 2.02 ERA (would be best in the league if he had enough innings to qualify). He now has a complete game to his credit, his 1.09 WHIP is fourth on the team, and he is third on the Phillies with 6.43 hits per 9 innings. Vance Worley has done nothing but put up zeros for the Phillies, yet has few true believers.
Vance Worley's Scouting Report
It is easy to see why baseball experts aren't jumping on the Vance Worley bandwagon. He throws a slightly below average fastball in the 88-92 range and features very bland secondary pitches (cutter, curve, slider, change). The fact is, Worley won't WOW you with anything.
What Worley lacks in power and pizzazz he makes up for in command. He has excellent control of all his pitches, changes speeds well, and moves the ball up, down, left, and right. By throwing strikes, he routinely finds himself ahead in the count. Vance also has three variations of his fastball and doesn't throw anything straight (and Greg Maddux made a career doing just that).
What Worley has not developed yet is a "put away pitch" like a sharp changeup or a nasty slider. Without that one devastating pitch, Worley has difficulty striking out hitters which therefore runs up his pitch count.
The question we have to ask ourselves is this: is Worley one pitch away from being a legit top of the line starter or he just putting on a good magic show and we just haven't found the rabbit yet?
To hopefully answer that question, I analyzed every single pitch from 6 of his starts myself - by the way, if anyone knows a database that does this for me, please let me know! My hope was that it would tell a story to explain the Vance Worley phenomenon. Well, I didn't get much, but I did find one interesting pattern:
Worley throws a lot of fastballs. 65% of Worley's pitches are a combination of four-seam, two-seam, and cut fastballs. That is a very high and dangerous percentage. Consider this, if Worley threw one pitch per batter with this percentage he would throw 6 fastballs and just 3 off-speed pitches. Cole Hamels is proof that the cutter is quite different from the two and four seam fastballs, but 65% is still a lot of pitches at essentially the same speed.
With such a high reliance on fastballs, Worley walks a fine line between domination and ineptitude because he must locate perfectly to survive. Hitters love fastballs. The more you give them, the greater the chance they will "get you." If Worley continues to live on the corners like he has and avoids the middle of the plate he can continue to put up zeros. But if he is just a smidgen off he might be in for a long day.
Vance Worley's Prognosis
If Worley pitches exactly like he has, it is just a matter of time before the dream is over. Look at Kyle Kendrick. He pitched well in his first two seasons, but two years later the Phillies told him to get another pitch or stop calling. Worley is in the same boat where he either needs to find a new pitch or develop his slider or changeup into a strikeout pitch. If he does, it gives him much more flexibility to mix and match his other pitches and maybe even expand the zone.
For now, we may have to continue playing wait-and-see. If you want to decide for yourself, Worley's pitching log is below. Enjoy!
Vance Worley Pitching Log
7/26/11 SFG - Total Pitches - 114
Win (Complete Game), 9.0 innings, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K
Fast - 73
Cut - 1
Curve - 5
Slide - 28
Change - 7
7/20/11 at Chc - Total Pitches - 110
Win, 8.0 innings, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K
Fast - 56
Cut - 5
Curve - 3
Slide - 38
Change - 8
Fastball percentage - 51%
Fastball + Cutter percentage - 55%
7/4/11 at Fla - Total Pitches - 100
Win, 7.0 innings, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K
Fast - 37
Cut - 26
Curve - 12
Slide - 19
Change - 6
Fastball percentage - 37%
Fastball + Cutter percentage - 63%
6/29/11 BOS Total Pitches - 118
Win, 7.0 innings, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K
Fast - 85
Cut - 0
Curve - 2
Slide - 16
Change - 15
Fastball percentage - 72%
Fastball + Cutter percentage - 72%
6/24 at Oak Total Pitches - 105
ND, 6.0 innings, 0 ER, 1 H, 4 BB, 4 K
Fast - 75
Cut - 3
Curve - 4
Slide - 12
Change - 11
Fastball percentage - 71%
Fastball + Cutter percentage - 74%
5/29 at Nym Total Pitches - 72
Lost 3.0 innings, 5 ER, 12 H, 0 BB, 1 K
Fast - 37
Cut - 9
Curve - 9
Slide - 9
Change - 8
Fastball percentage - 51%
Fastball + Cutter percentage - 64%
WORLEY'S OVERALL 6 GAME TOTALS
Total Pitches - 620
Fast - 363 - 58.5%
Cut - 44 - 7.1%
Curve - 35 - 5.6%
Slide - 123 - 19.8%
Change - 55 - 8.9%
Fast + Cut 65.6% |
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