Phillies offseason Q&A report
by Scott Butler 3/2/10

Phillies baseball is finally upon us. The Phillies play their first unofficial spring training game tomorrow against Florida State before taking on the Yankees on Thursday. With the offseason coming to a close, we decided to answer a few questions about the Phillies as they stand now. We will have our official Phils Baseball Phillies preview in a couple weeks, so this is just a little teaser until then.

1) How was the off-season? What kind of grade would you give it?

The Phillies' off-season has been anything but boring, and fans are still talking about the trade that shipped Cliff Lee to Seattle and brought Roy Halladay to Philadelphia. I will begrudgingly say it was a good move because Halladay is a slight upgrade and they retain prospects, but it was extremely painful to watch Lee go. The Cliff Lee discussion is too long to describe here, so suffice it to say that the Phillies could have kept Cliff Lee (who was scheduled to make $9 million in 2010) and tried to sign him long term. Ruben Amaro made several other changes this off-season. He replaced relievers Scott Eyre, Chan Ho Park, and Clay Condrey with Danys Baez, Jose Contreras, and possibly Antonio Bastardo. You never know with relievers, but the new guys would appear to be a downgrade. He improved the bench slightly by replacing Eric Bruntlett, Matt Stairs, and Paul Bako with Juan Castro, Ross Gload, and Brian Schneider. They give up some of Stairs' power, but give Charlie Manuel many more options with the bench. Finally, Placido Polanco will replace Pedro Feliz at third. Defense could be an issue at third, since Polanco last played third in 2005 and he is replacing the sure-handed Pedro Feliz. But Feliz was a terrible hitter to watch and Polanco will be a nice contact hitter to accompany the power in the lineup. Overall, I would consider this a slight upgrade to the team. Grade: B

2) What is the key to success for 2010?

Three things: Cole Hamels, Brad Lidge, and the bullpen. Cole Hamels went from World Series and NLCS MVP to a slightly above average pitcher last year. A huge question for the Phillies is: which Cole Hamels shows up in 2010? He has been developing a new pitch (cut fastball or slider) over the winter to offset a sub par curveball, but will it be enough? Brad Lidge was perfect in 2008, but ranked as the worst reliever in 2009. With such polar opposite years, determining which version of Lidge we will see in 2010 is a real mystery. After undergoing elbow and knee surgeries, Lidge may not even be ready for opening day. But the Phillies are counting on Lidge to resemble the dominant 2008 guy and not the repulsive 2009 pitcher. The bullpen is generally a question mark for any team, and the Phillies are no different. They said goodbye to some pretty effective relievers in Scott Eyre and Chan Ho Park and replaced them with some marginally good guys. And with the questions surrounding Brad Lidge and a lot of new faces, the Phils might need a few of those complete game efforts from Roy Halladay.

3) What will be the team's strength?

Offense. The only change to the Phillies everyday lineup has been the signing of Placido Polanco at third base. He could be a great addition, because the Phillies have a ton of power and some speed, but they strike out way too much. Polanco is an extreme contact hitter and will provide some real stability to that lineup. With good hitters like Rollins and Victorino, as well as 30+ homer guys like Utley, Howard, Werth, and Ibanez, the Phillies should lead the league in runs once again.

4) What could be their Achilles' heel?

The closer position. How effective will Brad Lidge be and will he be healthy? Ryan Madson showed last year that he is not a closer, and the prospect of counting on guys like Baez, Contreras, or Durbin is a little scary.

5) Who will be the team's MVP?

Ryan Howard. Howard has been amazingly consistent with four straight seasons of 40-plus homers and 135-plus RBIs. Although the prospect of Jayson Werth as the team MVP is enticing, it is tough to ignore Howard. As great as he has been, I think he might even be better in 2010.

6) Will a rookie make a significant impact on the team in 2010, and if so, who?

No. The Phillies will not have a rookie in the everyday lineup or on the starting pitching staff. A rookie might make an impact in the bullpen or possibly as the fifth starter, but it won't be significant.

7) Who will be the breakout player for the team?

Kyle Kendrick. After working hard last season to develop a changeup, Kendrick is poised to make another run with the Phillies this year. He will win the fifth starter's spot with his new bag of tricks and show everyone that he is here to stay.

8) Which player will drop off the most from 2009?

J.A. Happ. As much as I like Happ, I think he pitched way over his head last year and this year he will come back to earth. A big part of his success last season was a low opponent average with runners in scoring position, but with one year of film for hitters to look at, he might not be able to count on that in 2010. I love his demeanor and composure, but he may not have the stuff to be a consistently good pitcher.

9) Who is the most likely player to be dangled as trade bait?

Jayson Werth. I don't think Werth will be traded, but there is nobody noteworthy the Phillies would dangle in my mind. Werth will be a free agent after this year and will command big money, so I could see Ruben Amaro getting creative with Jayson Werth.

10) What will be the team's final record and divisional standing?

95-67, 1st in the NL East. This Phillies team is slightly better than last year, but so is the rest of the division. How far they go in the playoffs might depend on the success of Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge.