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2010 Phillies Prediction blog: Starting Pitching
by Scott Butler 3/26/10
In our 2010 Phillies prediction blogs, we move to the starting pitching. To review, we have been giving ratings of Much Better, Better, Slightly Better, Same, Slightly Worse, Worse, and Much Worse. We also decided to break up this year into the infield, outfield & catcher, starting pitching, bullpen, and defense and bench. We will finish as we always do with an overall team prediction and team awards.
Since all but one of the Phillies starting pitchers were in the rotation last season, we compared each player to himself and other pitchers who were in the same role. It doesn't make for a perfect system, but hey, this is just for fun anyway. OK, let's go.
Starting Pitchers
1) Roy Halladay vs. Cliff Lee/Cole Hamels
Since Cole Hamels is now our number 2 pitcher, let's compare Roy Halladay to last year's number one "spot," which we will consider to be Cole Hamels in the beginning and Cliff Lee when he arrived. There is no discussion here. Roy Halladay is a serious upgrade and our first true ace to start the season since Curt Schilling. Roy Halladay can't be much better than Cliff Lee, but Lee was only here for a couple months. Halladay is very good, and we have no reason to believe that will change. The best we can do is give you his numbers from last season: 17-10, 2.79 ERA, 239 innings, 35 walks, 208 strikeouts, 9 complete games, and 4 shutouts. And that was in the American League East!
2. Cole Hamels vs. Cole Hamels - BETTER
Pretty much everyone agrees that Cole Hamels is an enormous key to the success of the Phillies this season. For a variety of reasons, Hamels was no better than average last year. It seemed like Hamels got off to a bad start and just wasn't able to get back on track. Due to constant appearances on the World Series "Circuit" and maybe a little cockiness from a dominating post-season where he earned NLCS and World Series MVP honors, Hamels was not in good shape entering Spring Training. For the first time in his entire life, Hamels had to deal with failure. Throughout the season, he seemed to be battling himself and did not demonstrate much composure on the mound. The end result was a season in which he had a 4.32 ERA and a 10-11 record.
Don't worry, folks, Hamels not only will be better, but he will have a career year. Like it or not, we've learned over the years that Hamels is a creature of habit, so the whole MVP tour last year must have screwed with his head. He knew he needed to be in better shape this year and therefore had a pretty tough offseason routine. For the first time in his career, Hamels has full velocity already. He also developed a cutter and has been working on his curveball. Hamels cannot simply rely on his fastball and crazy changeup anymore, so the success of his curve and cutter may decide his fate.
People like to joke about the way Cole looks and talks, but he is a tough competitor and will not allow last year to repeat itself. He knows the team and the city is counting on him, and he is up for the challenge. Hamels will finish this year with an ERA under 3.00, over 200 innings, over 200 K's, and 20 Wins. How does that sound?
3. Joe Blanton vs. Joe Blanton- Slightly Worse
Joe Blanton is a solid middle of the rotation
pitcher. He's not great, he's not bad, he's just consistent. Blanton had a slow start last season, but once he got started he was very effective. He finished with a 12-8 record and a 4.05 ERA. He came close to 200 innings (195.1) and had a walk/strikeout ratio of 59/163. We don't see any indications that he move significantly up or down in 2010, but we had the general inclination that this will be a down year for Blanton with an ERA in the range of 4.25. With this offense, that is just fine with us.
4. JA Happ vs. JA Happ/Chan Ho Park- Worse
One of the big questions with this Phillies team is this: Will JA Happ suffer from the sophomore slump? We say yes. JA Happ has a wonderful temperament and is certainly up to the challenge of proving he belongs in the big leagues. But it's hard to win on guts alone, and his stuff doesn't seem to be good enough for a repeat performance of last season.
Happ had a 12-4 record with 2.93 ERA last season. Do you really think he is that good? That is 16 points better than Hamels' best season. JA Happ is a good pitcher, but he's not nearly that good. Happ will succeed by mixing speeds, hitting his spots, and hiding the ball well, but the fact remains that he has a very flat fastball and only throws in the mid to upper 80's.Happ will finish 2010 with an ERA right around 4.00. That is nothing to sneeze at. Happ is not a top the rotation type of pitcher, but this will be his year to prove that he was no fluke. We think he will.
5. Jamie Moyer vs. Jamie Moyer- Same
It looks like Jamie Moyer will win the final spot in the pitching rotation, although it is very likely Kyle Kendrick will pitch in that role at some point. I have said for two years now that Jamie Moyer's mark is 5.00. Everyone remembers how remarkable Moyer pitched in 2008, but that was mixed between a 5.01 ERA in 2007 and a 4.94 ERA last season. We know what we have in Jamie Moyer. He is a smart pitcher with excellent control who moves the ball in and out. He has to be perfect, cannot make mistakes, and he knows it. If Moyer is even a tick away from perfect, he can and will get destroyed. But if he has his control, he can baffle even the best of hitters. At the end of the season, Moyer will once again be right around that 5.00 ERA, which is perfectly acceptable as the #5 pitcher. If he pitches better than that, great. If he pitches worse we will see Kyle Kendrick, which is a a whole other story.
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