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2010 Phillies Prediction blog: Outfield and Catchers
by Scott Butler 3/18/10
It's Phillies prediction time! Once again, Phils Baseball is ready to introduce our Phillies predictions, this time for the Phils 2010 season. We will go through, position by position, comparing this Phillies team to last year's squad. We all put our heads together and gave ratings of Much Better, Better, Slightly Better, Same, Slightly Worse, Worse, and Much Worse. We also decided to break up this year into the infield, outfield & catcher, starting pitching, bullpen, and defense and bench. We will finish as we always do with an overall team prediction and team awards. Let's get started!
Outfield
Left Field - Better
We predict that the end results for Raul Ibanez in 2010 will be roughly the same as last year, but in a very different way. This might be the hardest position to predict, since Ibanez had such drastic extremes during the season that we still don't really know who the "real" Raul Ibanez is.
Ibanez was a freak during the first half last year, hitting .309 with 22 HR, 60 RBI, a .367 On-base percentage, and .649 slugging percentage. It's hard to decide if he was on a hot streak, because he played hurt and was not even close to the same player when he returned from the DL on July 10. He batted .232 after the all-star break with 12 HR and 33 RBI. He finished the season with a .272 avg., .552 slugging percentage, 34 HR, 93 RBI, 119 K, and 56 BB.
We don't feel that Ibanez is quite as good as his first half numbers, but he is not far off. His average should remain close to .300 and his strikeouts and walks should also be similar. We figured his second half numbers were irrelevant since he was playing in significant pain, so we based our assumptions on his first half numbers. Ibanez will not put up the same MVP type numbers he did through the All-Star break, but he should not be drastically worse, either. Let's say he performs at 75% of that level over the entire season. That would give him roughly 40 home runs and 100+ RBI's, and he should be able to meet and exceed those numbers. We expect to see over 40 homers and 110 RBI's.
Click here to view all of the career stats for Raul Ibanez.
Center Field - SAME
Last year, many of us at Phils Baseball were not completely sold on Shane Victorino as an everyday player, but not any more. Victorino earned the right to be named an all-star. The Flyin Hawaiian finished 2009 with a .292 average,10 homers, 62 RBIs, 102 runs scored, 25 stolen bases, and led the majors with 13 triples. We feel that Shane's 2009 numbers are a perfect representation of his talent. Victorino has been remarkably consistent throughout his Phillies career, with a batting average been between .281 and .293 in all four seasons. His walks, RBIs, on-base percentage, hits, and doubles have all risen each year, and they will mostly plateau this season.
Expect all of his numbers to be very close to last year, and although he will not be a "better" player in 2010, his numbers might look better now that he hits seventh in the lineup. Due to hitting 7th, Victorino will swipe 40-50 bags, have more RBI's, and fewer runs scored. Other than that, no change from last year.
Click here to view all of the career stats for Shane Victorino.
Right Field - Slightly Better
We were way off in our predictions for Jayson Werth last year. We thought he would be worse. Well, he wasn't. In fact, he changed from just another player to becoming a legitimate all-star and a likely big time free agent after this season. Werth finally "figured out" how to hit (especially in regards to right-handed pitching) and the scaring thing is that he still has a lot to learn. Werth finished with a .268 average, .373 on-base percentage, 36 HR, 99 RBI, 20 SB, and 156 K.
In the past, Werth always killed lefties but was pretty bad against righties. But after a full year of playing everyday, he finally learned how to hit right-handers. Werth will improve even more against righties and catapult himself into near "superstar" status. He will hit 40-45 homers and 115+ RBIs.
Click here to view all of the career stats for Jayson Werth.
Catcher - Better
Carlos Ruiz had a better season in 2009 than the year before, but it was still not a particularly good offensive season for Ruiz. He batted .255 with a .355 on-base percentage and .425 slugging percentage. He reached career highs with 9 home runs, 43 RBIs, and a .780 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage). Ruiz still grounded into a lot of double plays (8), but only struck out only 39 times in 322 at-bats.
Although his regular season stats were lacking, Ruiz has been clutch in the playoffs. We all know how good he is defensively and at calling games. But this year, Ruiz will translate his postseason success into the regular season. Ruiz will hit .270 or higher, and with Victorino ahead of him he will generate career high RBI totals.
Brian Schneider replaced Coste/Bako as the Phillies' backup catcher. He doesn't have big shoes to fill since Bako and Coste had poor offensive seasons for the Phillies. Schneider is a veteran catcher with a .251career average, and is a definite upgrade to the position.
Check out the career stats for Carlos Ruiz and Brian Schneider.
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