2010 Phillies Prediction blog: Infield
by Scott Butler 3/23/10
In our second group of predictions, we will now compare the Phillies' 2010 infield to last year's squad. We gave ratings of Much Better, Better, Slightly Better, Same, Slightly Worse, Worse, and Much Worse. We also decided to break up this year into the infield, outfield & catcher, starting pitching, bullpen, and defense and bench. We will finish as we always do with an overall team prediction and team awards. Let's get started!
Infield
First Base - SAME
We have the same exact prediction for Ryan Howard as we did last year: just more of the same. That is very good news because Howard now has four straight seasons of 40-plus homers and 135-plus RBIs. If he produces numbers like that again in 2010, and we expect he will, that bodes well for the Phils.
In 2009, Howard had an "average" year with a .279 average with 45 HR and 141 RBI. He struck out 13 less times than the year before (186 strikeouts), and he will cut down on that number even further in 2010. Expect very similar numbers this season with a couple less homers, a .290 or higher average, and comparable RBI totals. His defense will even improve from a solid season last year.
Click here to view all of the career stats for Ryan Howard.
Second Base - BETTER
2010 will be Chase Utley's best season yet. In case you forgot, Utley looked like another likely candidate to win MVP in 2007 before he broke his wrist. Utley had a decent year in 2008 despite playing most of the season with a hip injury. He wasn't supposed to return from his offseason hip surgery until May or June, yet he was ready by opening day and clearly exhausted by the end of the season. This could be his first season where he is well rested and completely healthy. That is why we feel he will have a career year and win his first League MVP award.
2009 was a sub par year for Utley, yet among all major league second basemen Utley ranked 2nd in homers and OPS (on-base + slugging percentage), 3rd in slugging percentage, 4th in RBIs, 15th in batting average, and even 5th in stolen bases without getting caught once.
Our prediction is that in 2010 Utley will hit above .300 with 30+ homers, 100+ RBIs, and 100+ runs scored. Mark it down, this is Utley's year to follow Rollins and Howard as the Most Valuable Player.
Click here to view all of the career stats for Chase Utley.
Shortstop - Slightly Better
Jimmy Rollins was not very good last year. I hate to break it to you, but we do not predict much of an improvement from Jimmy in 2010. Rollins had a horrific first half and just an average second half, finishing with a .250 average, .296 OBP, 21 HR, 77 RBI, and 31 SB.
Rollins is not over the hill at 32 years old, but his best offensive years are behind him. Hopefully we are wrong, but we don't expect Rollins to have a particularly good offensive year. Rollins will be a .270 hitter with roughly the same numbers in the other offensive categories. Rollins predicts 50 stolen bases in 2010, and he will hit that mark this season. Other than that, expect Rollins to have very similar numbers to 2008. One thing that can't improve is his defense. Rollins once again had the top fielding percentage among shortstops. He actually slightly improved his career defense, which is THE SECOND BEST IN MAJOR LEAGUE HISTORY.
Click here to view all of the career stats for Jimmy Rollins.
Third Base - Much Better
Getting rid of Pedro Feliz might quietly be the best move Ruben Amaro has made. As much as Feliz killed the Phillies last year, Placido Polanco will do the complete opposite.
Feliz was a gaping hole in the Phillies lineup last season. Feliz finished the season with a .266 avg., 12 HR, and 82 RBI. That may not sound terrible, but without runners in scoring position he hit .243, his overall on-base percentage was .308, and he grounded into the second most double plays on the team (12). Feliz averaged 3.29 pitches per plate appearance, which is a terrible number, especially in comparison to Jayson Werth's number of 4.51.
Polanco may not be an offensive juggernaut, but he is exactly what this team needs. Polanco hit .285 last season with 10 homers and 72 RBIs, and those numbers will improve in a good Phillies lineup. As we've mentioned many times on Phils Baseball, Polanco's greatest effect is his ability to make contact. He struck out once every 14.7 plate appearances in 2009, making him the second hardest batter to strikeout in the Majors. That gives the Phillies flexibility to utilize more hit-and-runs and the ability to put together more rallies. Not only that, but it allows Charlie Manuel to hit Victorino in the 7 spot in the lineup.
Click here to view all of the career stats for Placido Polanco.
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