2010 Phillies Preview and Predictions
by Scott Butler 4/3/10
Here it is! Since Spring Training is now officially over, it is time for our 2010 Phillies overall team prediction. Expectations are sky high for this Phillies team, but just how good will the '10 Phillies be? Will they win the Division? Win another World Series? Let's find out. By the way, you can click the following links for our preview articles for the infield, outfield, starting pitching, and the bullpen, or find a list of them in our March Articles page.
We begin of course with pitching. Roy Halladay is by all means an ace pitcher and certainly the ace of this staff. Outside of a few great months with Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in Philadelphia since Steve Carlton. He brings with him a ridiculous work ethic, cool demeanor, an amazing AL East resume, and, oh yeah, a pretty darn good sinker. When you see that Halladay had a 2.79 ERA in the same division with the Yankees and Red Sox, you could easily predict that Halladay could have an ERA under 1 with the Phils, especially since most National League hitters don't know him that well. We fully expect Halladay to have at least as good numbers as last year, but an ERA in the low 2's or lower is a bit of a stretch.
As good as Halladay is, the key to the success of this team will largely depend on the success of Mr. Cole Hamels. There is an enormous amount of pressure on Cole Hamels. If Hamels can pitch like he did in 2008, the Phils may have the best 1-2 punch in all of baseball and will be awfully hard to stop in the playoffs. Hamels has terrible numbers in Spring Training, so is there any reason to have even the slightest faith in him? We think so. Unlike last year, Hamels has worked really hard in the offseason to get in shape and work on a few pitches. From all accounts, his curveball is much improved and he has added a cutter. The curveball and cutter make Hamels much less predictable and makes a good fastball and great changeup even better. 2009 was a rough year, but people forget that Hamels is still only 26 and this may just be part of the learning curve. You heard it here Phillies fans, Cole Hamels is back!
The rest of the starting rotation is a mediocre group. You pretty much know what you get with Joe Blanton: he is gonna pitch six innings and give up three runs just about every time out there. He is nothing more or less than a solid middle of the rotation pitcher. While Blanton is on the DL for roughly a month with his oblique strain, Kyle Kendrick should fill in nicely for him. Kendrick is at the very least a battler and should keep the team in games, but he had a great spring and may even be better than we hope.
As good as JA Happ was last season, he is a vanilla pitcher and will not duplicate last season's success. Happ is like Blanton and will be nothing more or less than solid. He doesn't have the stuff to keep his ERA below 3 and he's too stubborn to have an ERA any worse than 4. Then there is Jamie Moyer. As we have mentioned all along, at this point in his career, in an average year Jamie Moyer will have an ERA around 5. That's where it finished last year and that's where it will be this year.
In regards to the hitting, there is not much to say other than they will continue to score a ton of runs. We love the addition of Polanco to the lineup and feel that he will have a major impact on this team. We mentioned time and again that Polanco brings the "small ball" dynamic that this team desperately needs. We pretty much know what we are going to get with the rest of the lineup. No worries here.
Without a doubt, the bullpen is a big question mark and Brad Lidge is a major concern. The fact that his fastball is only in the upper 80's is very worrisome, and most indications show that he may not be the same guy who helped us win the World Series. Lidge will not be anywhere near as bad as he was last year, but we can only hope that he can hold his own at the back end of the bullpen. As the main lefty in the bullpen, JC Romero is a key piece of the puzzle. Romero is another big unknown, and whether or not he can return to his pre-2009 form remains to be seen. Madson and Durbin should be similar to what we've seen from them in the past, but who knows what we will get out of Baez and Contreras. You can generally flip a coin with most relievers, and let's just hope we get the good side of the coin with those guys.
One of the greatest affects Roy Halladay might have is on the bullpen. Halladay has pitched no less than 200 innings in each of the last four seasons, and that is in the toughest division in baseball and in a league with the DH. Now pitching in the National League, Halladay should be able to pitch 250 innings and provide much needed rest for the bullpen. And they will need it.
The bench has certainly improved by getting rid of guys like Stairs and Bruntlett, but we aren't too thrilled with Juan Castro and Ross Gload who replaced them. Many people have overlooked the importance of Greg Dobbs to the bench. Dobbs is one of the best pinch-hitters around, and having a healthy Greg Dobbs would be a huge upgrade to last season. Brian Schneider was a good pickup by Ruben Amaro, and he is a great improvement over Coste and Bako. But the biggest item that is lacking in the Phillies bench is speed. We don't have anyone to plug into late game situations, which puts the Phillies at a major disadvantage. Overall, the bench is OK at best.
Overall Predictions
Make no mistake, this is a good Phillies team. They have an amazing lineup, solid pitching, and a great team chemistry. But the bench and bullpen are definite flaws, and teams like the Braves, Nationals, and Mets have improved. Therefore, we do not predict the Phillies will win 100 games and walk away with the Division.
Now for our official predictions:
Hitting: BETTER
Starting Pitching: BETTER
Bullpen: WORSE
Defense: SAME
Record: 95-67
Cy Young winner: Roy Halladay
NL MVP: Chase Utley
NL Division champs
The Phillies will once again be crowned WORLD CHAMPIONS!
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