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The Phillies are hovering around the top of the NL East and certainly are not running away with the division. Scott and I thought it would be fun to have a little argument about why the Phils will and won't win the division. I get to go first and argue why the Phillies WILL win the division.
1. Ryan Howard
Howard has a .290 batting average with 10 homers and 43 RBIs and 61 K’s. If he kept up this pace, he would hit 28.42 homers with 122 RBI’s, and 173 strikeouts. Those aren’t “Ryan Howard” power numbers. But they aren’t terrible either. AND HOWARD HAS NOT GOTTEN HOT YET. This guy WILL go on a tear at some point and when he does…look out. We are a couple games out in the NL East without a hot Ryan Howard. I like our chances when he does heat up.
2. Jimmy Rollins
Even the biggest Rollins doubters would have to admit that Rollins’ impact on the team goes way beyond his abilities as a leadoff hitter. He is unquestionably the leader on this team, and when Rollins returns it will be a big boost in the clubhouse. But his return impacts so much more. First of all, with Jimmy at the top of the lineup, all of the other hitters fall back to the spots where they belong. It also means that not only will J-Roll be in the lineup, but Castro and Valdez will now be not in the lineup. They filled in pretty darn well for Jimmy, but who would you rather have in your lineup? And then there’s the speed factor. The Phillies have not been running, and they need Jimmy to lead the way and bring a running game back to this squad.
3. Jayson Werth
Nobody has looked worse than Jayson Werth lately. Like Howard, Jayson Werth will also get hot and add some more muscle to this lineup This slump has to end sometime. Once he does, I think Werth will make teams pay for it. Expect Werth to get mean and start hitting the heck out of the baseball. Maybe the Phillies can time it right and re-sign him just before he catches fire.
4. Brad Lidge
I’m sure I will eat my words on this, but I think the old Brad Lidge is back. Just from watching Lidge’s last three outings, it is clear that this is not the 2009 Lidge. When a guy gets two cortisone shots within a couple months you have to worry, and there’s a good chance he will completely fall apart. But if he stays healthy, Lidge may just surprise people and become the dominant closer he once was. If Brad Lidge was even a little healthy last year, the Phils would have walked away with the division last year. Lidge could be the x-factor on the team this year.
5. Roy Halladay
Just imagine where this team would be without Halladay (Yeah I know that would mean we have Cliff Lee, but work with me here). It doesn’t take a genius to say that Halladay will play a big part in winning the division, but the reason I will use for this discussion is not his numbers so much as his role as stopper. That is what separates an ace from a good pitcher. When the team is down and loses a couple in a row, it make such a big difference knowing that you will win with your ace on the mound. We saw how big Cliff Lee was last year, and hopefully Halladay will do the same thing this year.
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