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Yesterday, we examined my 2010 Phillies predictions for the starting pitching. Now we turn our attention to the bullpen. Injuries have played a big role with the Phillies bullpen, so it will be hard to judge them, but we can at least take a look.
Click here for a link to the original 2010 Phillies bullpen predictions.
Bullpen
Brad Lidge vs. Brad Lidge
Prediction:
MUCH BETTER
Result: BETTER
I really thought that with the knee problems behind him, Lidge would be lights-out once again. So far in 2010, it doesn't appear that Lidge is a whole heck of a lot better than last year. It would be nearly impossible for him to be even remotely close to as bad as last year, but 3 blown saves in 4 chances at one point does not exactly scream dominance. At times he has looked like the '08 Lidge, but then he comes back with a clunker. Overall, he has a 4.60 ERA, 6 saves, and 3 blown saves.
If Lidge doesn't improve soon, Ruben Amaro may need to investigate finding a "real" closer at the trade deadline. Either that, or give Romero, Durbin, or (gulp) Madson a chance. Hard to believe a 4.60 ERA is considered better, but it is compared to an 0-8 record with a 7.21 ERA and 11 blown saves. .
Ryan Madson vs. Ryan Madson
Prediction:
BETTER
Result: Same
If Ryan Madson wasn't a complete dope, maybe we could give a true comparison to last year. But in the absolute bone head move of the year, Madson decided to kick a chair, break his toe, and leave us with guys like Baez for a couple months. As stupid as he might be, we can REALLY use Madson down the stretch. The less we have to use Baez, the better.
Chad Durbin vs. Chad Durbin
Prediction: SAME
Result: SAME
Injuries, injuries, and more injuries. As bad as Madson's injury hurt the Phillies, Chad Durbin going down hurt equally as much. When he has pitched, Durbin has been the utility man of the bullpen. He pitched a few times in middle relief, but really helped the Phils as an "innings eater." If Durbin can return and pitch like he has during his time this season, he will definitely get a BETTER rating. Last season, he had a 4.39 ERA, but in 29 games this year he has been a respectable 3.39.
J.C. Romero vs. J.C. Romero
Prediction:
SLIGHTLY WORSE
Result: SAME
My initial prediction for JC Romero was based on his 2008 numbers since he only pitched 21 innings last year. He pitched a 81 innings in '08 with a 2.75 ERA. Although Romero has appeared in 28 games, he has only pitched 18.2 innings. His ERA is actually better than 2008 at 2.41, but he’s now more of a lefty specialist than a guy we really count on. Where is the guy who was a stud in the pen down the stretch? You gotta wonder if something is going on that we don't know about. If Charlie trusts Romero enough to pitch him in the ninth, why don't we see more of him in the eighth?
Danyz Baez & Jose Contreras vs. Chan Ho Park & Scott Eyre
Prediction:
WORSE
Result: WORSE
If there is one guy that I would be content to not see pitch another game for the Phillies, it is Danyz Baez. He seems like a nice enough person but he is sickening to watch. Baez has given up 49 baserunners in 32.1 innings and has a 4.45 ERA. That's bad for a reliever. Charlie Manual finally figured out that Baez stinks and demoted him to more of a middle relief role. He can throw hard, but he can't hit his spots, and is guaranteed to throw at least one hanging breaking ball per at-bat. Good choice on that guy, Ruben.
As for Jose Contreras, he's been pretty good for the Phillies. He's another guy who can only pitch every other game, but he's been good when he's been in there. He slowed down after a super start, but he still has a solid 2.79 ERA.
I picked this one right. In 42 games, Scott Eyre had a 1.50 ERA and was very effective in limited action. As for Chan Ho Park, he was awesome in his role as reliever. Park had a 2.52 ERA in 38 relief appearances. Clearly better than Baez and Contreras.
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