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Time to panic over the Phillies starting pitching?
by Scott Butler 5/10/09
After 29 games, an ERA of 5.39 for the Philadelphia Phillies ranks last in the entire National League and the blame lies squarely on the shoulders of our 5 starters. You could certainly argue that "hey, it's early, they will come around," but should we now be worried that we may just have a bad rotation? I don't think so. Let's take a look at each of Phillies starting pitchers.
Cole Hamels
There is no need to worry about Cole Hamels, or at least what he does on the mound. The only worry (and it definitely is a real concern) is whether or not he can stay healthy. Since there is no controlling his health, I choose to ignore it and focus on what we have an idea about. There is no question that Hamels will be good, but the question is how good? I think we can expect similar numbers to last year, but not better. I predict next year will be a killer year for Cole but not this year.
Brett Myers
When you compare this year's numbers for Brett Myers and compare them to last year at the same point, it is downright frightening: they are eerily identical. Check out his numbers through 6 starts in 2008 and 2009.
After 6 starts in 2009: 2-2 record, 37 innings, 5.35 ERA, 43 hits, 10 HR, 15 walks, 27 strikeouts, 2-2 2009
After 6 starts in 2008: 2-2 record, 37 innings, 5.11 ERA, 42 hits, 10 HR, 9 walks, 27 strikeouts 2008
If his numbers remain anywhere close to last year than we are in big trouble. But that will not happen. I am extremely impressed with him this years, despite his poor numbers and almost because of them. The Brett Myers we saw last year was immature and ready to explode with his poor start last season and we saw how that story unfolded. But this is a different Brett Myers. Early on this season he actually pitched extremely well except for a few pitches that they hit a really long way. He fell behind early and seemed ready for an early shower each game, but he kept his composure and kept the team in the games. After Myers tweaks a couple things, I really think he is going to return to the form we saw from his at the end of last year. Yes, I really believe that. Just wait and see.
Jamie Moyer
Moyer is what he is. At this point in his career, I figure the over-under on Jamie Moyer is a 5.00 ERA. He finished the 2007 season with a 5.01 ERA, and I think that we can expect similar numbers this year. Don't look at what he did last season, because that was a bit of an anomaly. You cannot forget that he is 46 years old and throws a fastball in the low eighties and to expect a repeat of last year would be crazy. I would consider a 4.50 ERA to be a successful season. Moyer knows how to pitch so I am not afraid of an Adam Eaton-like season, but don't be surprised if he finishes with an ERA close to 6.00.
Joe Blanton
It is hard to make a prediction on a guy you haven't seen much, but I think Joe is gonna hit a hot streak really soon. Blanton seems to have a good head on his shoulders and it does not seem likely that he will continue to pitch this was all season. Blanton was known as an innings eater who throws strikes. As soon as he gets a better feel of his pitches and can locate his fastball he will be just fine. He will not set the world on fire, but Joe Blanton will be more than adequate as the third or fourth starter for the Phillies.
Chan Ho Park/ J.A. Happ
Park will not stick around very long as a starter for the Phillies. In his career, Chan Ho Park has been effective as a reliever and not as a starter. That trend will continue for Park in 2009. He is certainly not as bad as he has been to start the season but he is not much better, either. After a few more starts, he will move over to the bullpen and J.A. Happ will take over.
Your guess is as good as mine as to how well Happ will pitch. My thoughts are that he is not the next Cole Hamels, but he will be a solid starter for year's to come. I think he will have an ERA close to four this season, which is perfectly fine as the fifth starter.
With all of the celebrations, funerals, and rain delays finally behind them, the starting pitching is going to come together soon. Well all is said and done, the Phils starting pitching will be in the middle of the pack in the National League. With a strong bullpen and a potent lineup, the Phillies will definitely contend for another NL East title.
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