2009 Predictions Revisited
by Scott Butler 10/4/09
Position Players
Catcher - Prediction: BETTER
Result: SLIGHTLY BETTER
I was pretty close on this one. In 2008, Ruiz played 117 games, hitting .219 with 4 HR and 31 RBI. His offensive numbers were clearly better. In 2009, 107 games, .255 average, 9 homers, and 43 RBI, 8 double plays. He also clearly improved on the number of double plays. With two more at-bats, he hit into 8 double plays, 6 less than the year before.
The combo of Chris Coste and Paul Bako were much less productive than the year before, but the improvement of Ruiz essentially negates that. Overall, I would call the catcher position slightly better.
First Base - Prediction: SAME
Result: SLIGHTLY BETTER
I was very close on this one. Howard played all 162 games last season, batting .251 with 48 home runs, 146 RBI, 81 walks, and slugging percentage of .543, with 199 strikeouts. In 2009, in 160 games, he hit .279 with 45 homers and 141 RBI, 75 walks, and a .571 slugging percentage.
As I predicted, he had very similar numbers with slightly less home runs, a slightly higher batting average, and less strikeouts. What I did not predict was his defense. Howard went from being a terrible fielder to a gold glove caliber fielder for the first half of 2009. His defense dropped off slightly since then, but he is so much better that I consider this season better.
Second Base - Prediction: BETTER
Result: SLIGHTLY WORSE
I expected a better season for Utley and even predicted an MVP trophy, but it did not happen. In 2008, he batted .292 with 33 HR and 104 RBI. Considering he was injured for a good portion of the season, I figured his stats would be much better, but his power numbers were less with one more month of games. This year, he batted .282 with 31 home runs and 93 RBI.
Shortstop - Prediction: BETTER
Result: WORSE
I was way off on Jimmy Rollins. I thought he would rebound from an "off year" in 2008, but he was awful in the first half and had an overall bad offensive season. Rollins only played 137 games last season (with a month long injury) and batted .277 with 11 HR, 59 RBI, 76 runs scored, and 47 steals. In 2009, he played 155 games and batted .250 with 21 homers, 77 RBI, 100 runs scored, and 31 steals. But his defense remained the best in the business.
Third Base - SAME
Result: SAME
That prediction is about right. In 133 games, Feliz batted .249 with 14 HR and 58 RBI and hit into 14 double plays. In 2009, he hit.266 with 11 HR and 82 RBI and 12 double plays.
Greg Dobbs did not bat well and therefore did not play much and Feliz play many more games. Add the injury to the mix and Dobbs did not figure much in 2009.
Left Field - Prediction: SAME
Result: SAME
Comparing Ibanez with Pat Burrell, believe it or not the numbers are eerily close. Looking at their 2008 numbers, Burrell hit .250 with 33 HR, 86 RBI, 136 strikeouts, and 102
walks. In 2009 Ibanez hit .272 with 34 HR and 93 RBI, 119 strikeouts and 56 walks. Ibanez had a higher batting average and with slightly fewer strikeouts and significantly less walks.
I was correct that the number would be similar in different ways, but I expected a consistent season from Ibanez that we never saw from Burrell. I couldn't be further off on that prediction. Ibanez was as inconsistent as they got with a terrific first half and horrific second half.
Center Field - Prediction: SAME
Result: SAME
Victorino batted .293 last season with 14 HR, 58 RBI, 102 runs, and 36 stolen bases in 146 games. In 2009 he hit .292 with 10 HR, 62 RBI, 102 runs, and 25 stolen bases in 156 games. I predicted a slight drop off, but his numbers were very, very, similar. I worried that last season might have been the best we could see from Victorino as he became more expose, but teams know Shane and he continues to produce.
Right Field - Prediction: WORSE
Result: BETTER
I could not have been any worse in this prediction. Jayson Werth went from a borderline everyday player to a true all-star in just one season. He had a good season in 2008 with 418 at-bats, hitting .273 with 24 home runs and 67 RBI. But he was still a relative unknown. Now that has changed and he got even better. This year, he hit .268 with 36 HR and 99 RBI.
Jayson Werth is now a force in the lineup and hopefully someone we can count on for years to come.
Starting Pitchers
1. Cole Hamels vs. Cole Hamels - Prediction: BETTER
Result: WORSE
Who wouldn't have thought that Cole Hamels would have a career year? Cole started 33 games last year with a record of 14-10 and a 3.09 ERA in a Phillies record 227 1/3 innings, to go along with 196 strikeouts and 53 walks. And as ridiculous as he was in the postseason, it would stand to reason that this would be his year.
It was not. In 2009, he went 10-11 with a 4.32 ERA in 193.2 innings with 168 strikeouts and 43 walks. He started out slow, and aside from a couple terrific outing, he never seemed to get it together.
2. Brett Myers vs. Brett Myers - Prediction: BETTER
Result: N/A
Obviously with the hip injury we will never know what would have happened with Brett Myers. What I can say is that when all of the other Phillies starters were awful, Brett was consistently average. He could have gone any direction, so who knows?
If you compare Brett's spot to what we got from Cliff Lee, there is no comparison. All said, Cliff Lee went 7-4 with a 3.34 ERA with 3 complete games and one shutout. It's safe to say Lee is a better replacement than Myers.
3. Jamie Moyer vs. Jamie Moyer - Prediction: WORSE
Result: N/A
Unfortunately, I was correct about Jamie Moyer. After compiling a 3.71 ERA, with a 16-7 record in 196 1/3 innings a season ago, he was due to come back to Earth and he did. I said we should be happy if Moyer could stay near a 5.00 ERA and that is what he did, going 12-10 with a 4.94 ERA. You must give Moyer credit, though, because he did not want to pitch in the bullpen, yet did a fantastic job in that role.
4. Blanton vs. Kendrick - BETTER
Result: BETTER
After a poor start to the season, Joe Blanton turned into the Phillies most consistent starting pitcher and he was really impressive. There is no comparison between Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton. Kendrick went 11-9 in 2008 with an ERA of 5.49. This season, big Joe pitched 31 games and had a 12-8 record with a 4.08 ERA and has really produced for us after coming over from Oakland.
5. JA Happ/Chan Ho Park vs. Adam Eaton - BETTER
Result: MUCH BETTER
You probably forgot about Adam Eaton, who went 4-8 with a 5.80 ERA. Obviously we improved this year.
Chan Ho Park began the year as the starter and was not good, but even with his struggles, Happ was so good this year that it was a major upgrade.
Happ is a definite Rookie of the Year candidate, with a 12-4 record and a 2.93 ERA, to go along with 3 complete games and 2 shutouts. With a good head on his shoulders and certain positive arrogance about him, Happ has been the team MVP I believe.
Bullpen - Prediction: WORSE
Result: WORSE
Last year's bullpen consisted mainly of Chad Durbin, Ryan Madson, Clay Condrey, J.C. Romero, Rudy Seanez, Scott Eyre, and Brad Lidge. 2009's squad was mainly Jamie Moyer, Chan Ho Park, Ryan Madson, Brett Myers, Chad Durbin, Brad Lidge, Tyler Walker, and Scott Eyre.
Last year's bullpen was our biggest strength, but this year it is at the very least a question mark. Brad Lidge's problems are obvious. The numbers say enough. In 2008, Lidge was 2-0 with a 1.95 ERA and converted all 41 saves, pitching 69.1 innings with 50 hits, 35 walks, and 92 strikeouts. In 2009, he was 0-8 with a 7.91 ERA, blowing 11 out of 42 saves, pitching 58.2 innings with 72 hits, 34 walks, and 61 strikeouts.
The rest of the bullpen was a mess due to injuries. Romero was out most of the season with a suspension and injury, and Scott Eyre, Chad Durbin, and Clay Condrey spent some time on the DL, as well. Nobody pitched particularly poor out of that group, and aside from Lidge, the bullpen was not a liability. Ryan Madson really came into his own this year. He had his struggles in the closer's role, and I think he has learned a lot from this experience and may be even better next year.
Defense: Prediction: SAME
Result: SAME
The Phillies were and still remain the best defensive team in baseball. With Ibanez playing left and the dramatic improvement by Ryan Howard, we are even better this year.
Overall Predictions
Hitting: Prediction: BETTER
Result: SAME
Starting Pitching:Prediction: BETTER
Result: BETTER
Bullpen:Prediction: WORSE
Result: WORSE
Defense: Prediction: SAME
Result: SAME
There have not been many changes to this year's group, and I think the 2009 Phillies are a better team than last year. Most of our hitters had sub-par seasons last year and we still won the division. If this group plays up to their potential, which I think they will, our hitting will be improved.
As far as pitching is concerned, we now have a true ace in Cole Hamels, Myers should have a great year as the number two pitcher, Blanton is a solid three, Moyer should be adequate at four, and Chan Ho Park sounds great as the number 5 starter. All in all, a very strong squad.
You never know what to expect from your bullpen and oftentimes a bad year follows a good year, and that looks to be the case this year. It should be a decent bullpen, but it will not be as strong as last season.
Once again, we still have a very strong defense to support are division.
Winning a championship can change your outlook on your team, and I can't help fall into the same trap. Oh well, here is how the Phillies will do:
Record: 93-69 - EXACTLY RIGHT!
NL Division champs - CORRECT
Cy Young winner: Cole Hamels - WRONG
NL MVP: Chase Utley - WRONG
Let's see if the last one is correct...
The Phillies will repeat as WORLD CHAMPIONS!
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