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2009 Phillies Predictions
by Scott Butler 4/1/09
As the 2009 season draws near, it is prediction time. In order to do that, let's examine each position and compare it to last season. In comparison to last season, I will give each position a rating of better, worse, or same.
Position Players
Catcher - BETTER
The Phillies come into this season as they did with last season with Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste. Last season, Ruiz seemed to have progressed nicely with working with the pitching staff, but he had a terrible season at the plate. Ruiz played 117 games, hitting just .219 with 4 HR and 31 RBI. Not only was his average low, but he hit into 14 double plays in 320 at-bats. To put that into perspective, Ryan Howard, another slow base runner, only hit into 11 double plays in 610 at-bats. Charlie Manuel is happy with Ruiz's work behind the plate and has urged Ruiz to focus on his hitting. Therefore, expect Ruiz to have a much better year offensively. I don't expect much change with Chris Coste's offensive numbers.
First Base - SAME
After a horrid start to the season, Ryan Howard put up pretty impressive numbers in 2008. Howard played all 162 games last season, batting .251 with 48 home runs, 146 RBI, 81 walks, and slugging percentage of .543, with 199 strikeouts. Now that Howard has signed a 3 year, $54 million dollar deal, he can relax and just focus on playing the games. In the off season, Howard has slimmed down and even went down to Clearwater well before the rest of the team to work on his defense. His defense has been borderline terrible in his career and he never seemed to show an interest in his defense. That is an impressive sign and shows that Howard is committed to improving his game and winning another championship. I always used to say that Ryan Howard was the only player that I could actually see thinking about his offense, but I will have to eat my words.
This year, I expect Howard to continue producing big numbers for the Phils. I predict a lower home run total for Howard with a higher batting average. He can't do much better than last year, so let's consider it a wash.
Second Base - BETTER
Last season, everyone was looking for Chase Utley to win the third straight MVP title for the Phillies. During the first month of the season, it sure looked like it would happen. Through the end of April, Utley was hitting .352 with 10 HR and 21 RBIs. However, he obviously ran into hip problems around that time and his number dropped. For the season, he batted .292 with 33 HR and 104 RBI, not too shabby for an injured player. It's hard to beat those numbers, but with a healthy season those numbers will get better. Sure, I'll say it, this time he will win the MVP trophy.
Shortstop - BETTER
Last year was definitely an off year for Jimmy Rollins. With an injury last season, Rollins only played 137 games. He batted .277 with 11 HR, 59 RBI, 76 runs scored, and 47 steals. These are not by any means bad numbers, but they aren't Rollins numbers and they will improve this year. One thing that cannot improve is his defense. He was as good as ever in the field. He continues to make all the routine plays and makes the hard plays look easy. He may not make ESPN highlights, but there is nobody better.
Third Base - SAME
Pedro Feliz played a ridiculous third base last year. He had a bit of a slow start (maybe trying to impress his new team), but his defense was fabulous the rest of the way. I have never seen a third baseman throw the ball so effortlessly, and his throws to start double plays are just a thing of beauty. His value defensively was immeasurable, but his offense was lacking. In 133 games, Feliz batted .249 with 14 HR and 58 RBI. Most experts thought he would have more power in a small home park, but it just didn't happen. He also hit into 14 double plays, and it seemed like he was competing with Ruiz to see who could get more. I think what you see is what you get, and he will have a similar year in 2009.
Greg Dobbs did an admirable job filling in for Feliz last year and set a club record for pinch hits in a season. Overall, Dobbs hit .301 with 9 HR and 40. I thought he might have dropped off last season after teams got to know him, but he did not disappoint. It will be tough for him to repeat the numbers he put up last year and I expect a slight dip in 2009, but not much.
Left Field - SAME
Easily the biggest difference in 2009 will be the absence of Pat Burrell, the longest tenured Phillies player at the time. Although I am rating left field as the same, the results could not be more different. Burrell consistently put up big power numbers, but was consistently streaky except for last year which was by far his most consistent. Raul Ibanez, who replaces Burrell this season is the picture of consistency. Looking at their 2008 numbers, Burrell hit .250 with 33 HR, 86 RBI, 136 strikeouts, and 102
walks. For the Mariners, Ibanez batted .293 with 23 homers and 110 RBI. Along with the lower home run totals comes a much higher average and similar RBI totals. I was a big fan of Burrell's defense. No, he didn't cover much ground, but he made the plays on everything he could reach and had a great arm. However, Ibanez is a serious upgrade in the field and makes Victorino's job much easier. Given the fact that they paid Ibanez more money than they were willing to offer to Burrell, it is obvious that the Phillies simply preferred Ibanez. Let's call left field a tie with last year.
Center Field - SAME
I will admit that I was worried about what kind of offense Shane Victorino would produce last year, but I was pleasantly surprised with the result. Victorino batted .293 last season with 14 HR, 58 RBI, 102 runs, and 36 stolen bases in 146 games. I see Victorino as a .270 to .290 hitter in general and I think that is about the most production you will get from him. Shane should have a bit of a drop off this season and hit in the neighborhood of .275, but he will probably end up with similar production and not enough for me to call this a worse season. Victorino played a terrific center field and cover a lot of ground, and in my mind, he was not given enough credit for the job he did covering for Burrell in left.
Right Field - WORSE
Jayson Werth really came into his own last season, and in my mind he was the biggest key to the Phillies winning the division last year. Coming in to the season, he was expected to platoon in right field, with Geoff Jenkins playing most of the time. That was the case last year until Jenkins got hurt and Werth played so well that he pretty much stole the right field job. Werth gave Charlie Manuel flexibility in the lineup, and Charlie inserted Werth into the leadoff position as well as batting him second, third, fifth, and sixth. At the end of the season and in the playoffs, the Phillies counted on him to produce in big situations and produce he did. With 418 at-bats, Werth hit .273 with 24 home runs and 67 RBI. I have a feeling it was a career year for Werth, however, and I see him batting much like he did in previous years. I hope I am wrong (and looking at his spring stats I probably am) with this one.
The other reason I rate right field as worse is the fact that we do not have a good back up for Werth. I did not expect Jenkins to have a good year, but I doubt whoever takes his spot will do much better.
Starting Pitchers
1. Cole Hamels vs. Cole Hamels - BETTER
Cole Hamels pitched very well for the Phillies last year, and I don't even need to mention what he did in the playoffs. Cole started 33 games with a record of 14-10 and a 3.09 ERA in a Phillies record 227 1/3 innings. He also racked up 196 strikeouts and surrendered 53 walks. Considering his low run support, 14-10 is a fine record, and the rest of his numbers are fantastic. But, I think he can and will do even better and will have his first 20 win season. The big worry with Hamels is injuries. He is very fragile and is always one step away from an injury, so let's hold out breathe and hope that is not the case.
2. Brett Myers vs. Brett Myers - BETTER
Who was the MVP of the Phils last year? Undoubtedly it was Brett Myers. He might not fit your definition of an MVP, but here is a guy who pitched about as badly as you could possibly imagine in the first half last year, but willingly ignored his ego, went down to Triple-A, and return to pitch the best in his career. That is a MVP, and a real man in my book. I have a feeling that until his trip to Allentown last year, Myers was pitching on talent alone, but now he has figured out how to pitch. The best is yet to come with Brett Myers, you'll see.
3. Jamie Moyer vs. Jamie Moyer - WORSE
What a pleasant surprise Jamie Moyer was last year. After a season in which Moyer's ERA was 5.01, he came back in 2008 with a borderline all-star season. He compiled a 3.71 ERA, with a 16-7 record in 196 1/3 innings. He continued to impress all season long, and for the second straight season took the mound as the Phillies clinched the division. But, let's face it, Moyer was old last year and he is even older now. I was nervous about Moyer going into last year, and I have the same apprehension this year. There is no way Moyer can replicate what he did last season, but the question is, how much worse will he be? If he can keep his ERA around 5.00, I think we should be happy.
4. Blanton vs. Kendrick - BETTER
When the Phillies traded for Joe Blanton at the trade deadline last year, it seemed to me like a typical Phillies move to get the cheapest guy possible, but it worked out very nicely for the Phils. Blanton was known as being an innings eater, but at first he did not live up to expectations. However, towards the end of the season Blanton really picked up his game. Overall, in 13 starts for the Phillies, Blanton pitched 70 2/3 innings with a 4-0 record, 4.20 ERA, 31 walks, and 49 strikeouts. He also pitched very well in the playoffs, showing great poise for a young pitcher. I expect more of the same for Blanton this season.
Kyle Kendrick obviously struggled last year and was sent to minors by year's end. Kendrick had a winning record of 11-9, but had a high ERA of 5.49. Blanton is certainly an upgrade.
5. Chan Ho Park vs. Adam Eaton - BETTER
It is a no-brainer that the number five starter will be an upgrade. Adam Eaton continued to disappoint last year with a 4-8 record and a 5.80 ERA. No need to discuss Eaton any further. Let's just be thankful that he is gone.
As for Chan Ho Park, he should be an adequate fifth starter, but only time will tell how well he will pitch. Park pitched well as a starter early in his career, but his recent success has come out of the bullpen. Last season, as a relief pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers, he went 4-4 with an ERA of 3.40 in 95 1/3 innings. Park has pitched extremely well this spring, so let's hope he had a good season. Either way, definitely an upgrade over Eaton.
Bullpen - WORSE
After losing Tom Gordon to injury, last year's bullpen consisted mainly of Chad Durbin, Ryan Madson, Clay Condrey, J.C. Romero, Rudy Seanez, Scott Eyre, and Brad Lidge. This year, Seanez is gone and Romero is suspended for the first 50 games, so to start the season, Jack Taschner and J.A. Happ are likely to be their replacements.
The Phillies bullpen was probably the best in baseball, thanks in part to career years from Durbin, Madson, and Lidge. I am still not convinced that Ryan Madson is a good pitcher and I have the feeling that last year's success will go to head and we will see an average season at best from him. Durbin pitched well for most of last season, but tired out towards the end, as his body was not yet fully accustomed to a relief role. Although he will be in better prepared this season, I expect a slight dip. Scott Eyre will have a more prominent role this year, but he overachieved last year and will probably also decline. Taschner and Happ should be adequate in the pen, but we will certainly welcome Romero back after his suspension. Expect more of the same from Clay Condrey. As for Brad Lidge, there is no way he will replicate last seasons success, but no worries with Lidge.
Defense: SAME
They always say pitching and defense win championships, and our defense definitely helped prove that equation true last year. The Phillies remain a very strong defensive team, and with the addition of Ibanez, it will slightly improve in 2009.
Overall Predictions
Hitting: BETTER
Starting Pitching: BETTER
Bullpen: WORSE
Defense: SAME
There have not been many changes to this year's group, and I think the 2009 Phillies are a better team than last year. Most of our hitters had sub-par seasons last year and we still won the division. If this group plays up to their potential, which I think they will, our hitting will be improved.
As far as pitching is concerned, we now have a true ace in Cole Hamels, Myers should have a great year as the number two pitcher, Blanton is a solid three, Moyer should be adequate at four, and Chan Ho Park sounds great as the number 5 starter. All in all, a very strong squad.
You never know what to expect from your bullpen and oftentimes a bad year follows a good year, and that looks to be the case this year. It should be a decent bullpen, but it will not be as strong as last season.
Once again, we still have a very strong defense to support are division.
Winning a championship can change your outlook on your team, and I can't help fall into the same trap. Oh well, here is how the Phillies will do:
Record: 93-69
NL Division champs
Cy Young winner: Cole Hamels
NL MVP: Chase Utley
The Phillies will repeat as WORLD CHAMPIONS!
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