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Phillies Minor League Team Info 
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Projecting John Mayberry in 2012
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| G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| Minors | 162 | 680 | 612 | 89 | 161 | 35 | 2 | 21 | 81 | 19 | 52 | 151 | .262 | .317 | .431 | 0.748 |
| Majors | 162 | 679 | 618 | 91 | 165 | 37 | 2 | 39 | 116 | 14 | 54 | 151 | .273 | .341 | .513 | 0.854 |
Mayberry's 2011 stats are eerily similar to his minor league numbers in most areas, but 18 more homers and 35 more RBIs is quite a jump. How can a player do in one major league season what he couldn't do in over five minor league seasons? The answer might be as simple as a new batting stance.
Mayberry’s new stance on life
A .231 batting average as of June 1st forced the Phillies to send Mayberry packing for Lehigh Valley. When he was recalled in July, he showcased a new batting stance which yielded starkly different results. From July 22nd on, Mayberry hit .315 with 10 HR, 25 RBI, a .621 slugging percentage, and a .998 OPS. To give you an idea just how impressive that is, look at it prorated over a full season:
| PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| Total since 7/22 | 138 | 124 | 23 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 13 | 24 | 3 | 2 | .315 | .377 | .621 | .998 |
| 162 Game Avg | 756 | 680 | 126 | 214 | 33 | 5 | 55 | 137 | 71 | 132 | 16 | 11 | .315 | .377 | .621 | .998 |
That's right, 55 home runs and 137 RBIs. Can a new batting stance really explain such a turnaround?! It’s actually not such a farfetched notion. John Mayberry is 6'6'', 230 lbs, and possesses a rare combination of power and speed. For an incredible athlete like that, it’s just a matter of finding a way to utilize his natural tools. The difference is small with a player like Michael Martinez, but the potential upside for Mayberry is enormous.
Coming out of Stanford, the Rangers liked his potential so much that they drafted him 19th overall in the 2005 draft and tossed him a $1.525 million signing bonus. As phuturephillies.com pointed out, Baseball America considered Mayberry “a legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter,” but to correct his hitting flaws “may take him 1,500 at-bats in the minor leagues." It ended up taking him 2,656 at-bats.
Let’s dive deeper into his stats to see what exactly he was doing that made him so successful. Here are how some of his advanced stats compare to the rest of the league.
| Contact% | K % | BB% | AB/HR | XBH% | SLG | OPS | |
| Mayberry | 77.10% | 18.6% | 8.8% | 17.8 | 11.2% | .513 | .854 |
| League avg | 80.70% | 18.6% | 8.1% | 35.0 | 7.6% | .399 | .720 |
Mayberry was close to the league average in making contact and identical in his strikeout percentage, which is impressive considering his power numbers. His HR rate, extra base hit rate, slugging percentage, and OPS are all WAY above the league average. Decent contact combined with exceptional power is a rare combination. That fact becomes clearer when we compare him to Ryan Howard in 2011:
| Contact% | K% | BB% | AB/HR | XBH% | AVG | SLG | OPS | |
| Mayberry | 77.1% | 18.6% | 8.8% | 17.8 | 11.2% | .273 | .513 | .854 |
| Howard | 67.2% | 26.7% | 11.6% | 16.9 | 9.9% | .253 | .488 | .835 |
On paper, John Mayberry was a better player than Ryan Howard. Mayberry made more contact, struck out less, hit for a higher average, and overall he hit for more power. I’m not saying John Mayberry is better than Ryan Howard…at least not yet. But Mayberry has all the tools to become a serious threat in the middle of the Phillies lineup and now he has the stats to back it up.
For our final comparison, we don't have to look hard to find another player in a nearly identical situation: Jayson Werth in 2007. They make for perfect comparables because they both are outfielders with decent size, strength, and speed. Better yet, Werth was just one year older with only 8 more at-bats than Mayberry. Here's how they compare:
| Year | Age | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| Mayberry | 2011 | 27 | 104 | 296 | 267 | 37 | 73 | 17 | 1 | 15 | 49 | 8 | 26 | 55 | .273 | .341 | .513 | .854 |
| Werth | 2007 | 28 | 94 | 304 | 255 | 43 | 76 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 49 | 7 | 44 | 73 | .298 | .404 | .459 | .863 |
The main figure to focus on here is their similar OPS, which essentially measures their total production. Werth was able to translate his production totals into all-star caliber success in the everyday lineup and there is no reason to believe Mayberry can't follow suit. Werth's example may be the best to project big things in the future for Mayberry.
Projecting John Mayberry in 2012
Although his poor statistics in over five years in the minors is cause for concern, Mayberry's continued production for nearly half a season was not just lucky. When a player is lucky, you can normally point to a large spike in one area. That wasn't the case with Mayberry. His contact percentage, strikeout rate, home run rate, and extra base hit rate show that he consistently improved his game in many areas.
Mayberry had the tools all along to be a superstar, but for whatever reason, it took him much longer than most to find his stroke. Now that he discovered the missing piece with his new batting stance, he has the opportunity to realize his full potential.
That said, my projection is that Mayberry will be the Phillies' regular left-fielder at year's end. He will be a huge part of the Phillies lineup in 2012 and will hit around .270 with at least 25 homers and close to 100 RBI's. Prove me right, Big John.
Here are Mayberry's full Major League Stats:
Year G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2009 39 60 57 8 12 3 0 4 8 2 23 .211 .250 .474 .724 27
2010 11 13 12 4 4 0 0 2 6 1 4 .333 .385 .833 1.218 10
2011 104 296 267 37 73 17 1 15 49 26 55 .273 .341 .513 .854 137
3 Yrs 154 369 336 49 89 20 1 21 63 29 82 .265 .328 .518 .846 174
162 Game Avg. 162 388 353 52 94 21 1 22 66 31 86 .265 .328 .518 .846 183
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 3/8/2012.
Projecting Phillies opening day roster
The entire Phillies squad is down in sunny Clearwater (those jerks), meaning baseball season has arrived. We know the names and the faces, but now we need to find them places. Let’s try to figure out who will make the Phillies 25 man roster.
Most teams go with a staff of 12 pitchers (5 starters and 7 relievers) and 13 position players, but with inning eaters like Halladay, Lee, and Hamels in the rotation, it’s quite possible the Phillies only bring 6 relievers north in exchange for an extra bench spot. We’ll examine both possibilities.
The 5 starters are easy:
Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Cole Hamels
Vance Worley
Joe Blanton
The only question with the starters is whether or not Blanton gets traded, in which case Kendrick is your #5.
Bullpen
If the Phillies carry 7 relievers, it’s pretty straight forward who they will take.
Jonathan Papelbon (closer)
Chad Qualls (middle relief)
Kyle Kendrick (long relief)
Jose Contreras (setup man)
Dontrelle Willis (lefty specialist)
Antonio Bastardo (lefty specialist/set up man)
Michael Stutes (middle relief)
It’s not such an easy decision for Charlie Manuel if he elects to take only 6 relievers. They fill the first 4 spots with the guys making the most money: Papelbon, Qualls, Kendrick, and Contreras. Barring a terrible spring, Dontrelle Willis will take one of the final two spots, which leaves either Antonio Bastardo or Michael Stutes.
Bastardo will probably get the nod over Stutes since he has more experience (2 full seasons vs. 1), pitched more in 2011 (64 games vs. 57), pitched better last season (2.64 ERA vs. 3.63), and offers another lefty in the bullpen. If it’s not Bastardo or Stutes, don’t be surprised if a great spring wins the job for David Herndon, Michael Schwimer, or even Justin De Fratus.
Position players
We know who will fill 11 spots:
Carlos Ruiz (C)
Chase Utley (2B)
Jimmy Rollins (SS)
Placido Polanco (3B)
John Mayberry (LF)
Shane Victorino (CF)
Hunter Pence (RF)
Bench
Brian Schneider (C)
Ty Wigginton (1B/3B)
Laynce Nix (LF/1B)
Jim Thome (PH/1B)
Michael Martinez will likely take one of the remaining spots. Despite hitting .196 last year with no power and average speed, the Phillies like Martinez for his defense. If the Phillies carry a 13 man bench, the real battle for the one remaining spot is between Juan Pierre and Scott Podsednick.
Juan Pierre has the odds on his side since he is two years younger, has a more accomplished career, and was healthy last year. Podsednick was injured all of last season, but he hit .300 combined over the previous two campaigns and hit nearly as many homers in his last two years (13) as Pierre has in his entire career (16). They both offer speed, but have poor stealing percentages and combined to lead the league in caught stealing 9 times.
Freddy Galvis and Domonic Brown are both long shots. The Phillies just re-signed Jimmy Rollins, so the only way Galvis makes the team right now is if Rollins gets injured. Brown has a slightly better chance if he tears it up in spring training, but the Phillies feel he needs more experience in the minors.
It's not likely the Phillies would keep Pierre and Podsednick even if they carry an extended bench. In that case, we may see Galvis or Brown because they are cheaper and can be optioned to Lehigh Valley if necessary. I doubt they would keep an extra bench man, but that would make for an intriguing storyline.
Cole Hamels ready to win 2012 Cy Young award
2012 Cy Young winner Cole Hamels? Why not? In 2011, his 2.79 ERA ranked sixth in the NL, his WHIP ranked second at 0.99, and he finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting.
I looked like a true genius for a while when I picked Hamels to win the Cy Young award in 2011. But when he came up a little short, I received no praise and my brilliance went unnoticed. I bet he wins it this year just to take my credit. Maybe I’ll have to pick Vance Worley this year…
Obviously Hamels is my pick again this year, but is he really a Cy Young candidate? He’s been a good pitcher, but does Hamels really rank up there with Halladay, Lee, or even Kershaw? He’s not there yet, but there are plenty of reasons to believe Hamels will have a monster 2012 season and can win the Cy Young award. Before we look at his stats on paper, we would be remiss if we ignored his obvious maturity.
Mental lessons for Hamels
Hamels was born with a good fastball and one of the best changeups in the game, but in my mind the biggest reason to believe Hamels is a Cy Young candidate is that he is finally ready mentally. Cole proved in the 2008 postseason that he is not afraid of a little pressure, but according to a line in The Mental ABC’s of Pitching, "if you want to know who I am, watch me when things aren't going my way."
Things were not going Cole's way in 2009. Hamels experience failure for the first time in his entire life that season and had no clue to handle it. His body language was terrible, he constantly complained to umpires, and in some cases he even showed up his teammates. Hamels was a textbook case of what not to do.
So, like any good pitcher, Hamels worked on his mental game. Even though his pitching was poor in April of 2010 and he received visits from boo birds, Hamels hung in there. His body language was good, he did not complain to the umps, and never even once lashed out at the fans who booed him despite almost single handedly ending their championship drought two years earlier. Hamels stated in his recent press conference that "it really made me discover who I was. That was the best stepping stone I could ever have in my career to really dig down deep and work harder."
2010 provided more examples. When the Phillies brought Cliff Lee back to town, Hamels was now considered the fourth best starter on his own team. That might have bothered the old Cole Hamels, but the new one barely noticed. And he didn’t whine a bit when his team gave him no run support for the second straight season.
But the best example of his growth in came in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Cardinals. In that game, the umpire was squeezing him, the Cardinals were fouling off every pitch within a yard of the plate, and his pitch count rose exponentially. While I threw stuff at the TV, Hamels tuned out the frustration and maintained his cool in six of the toughest innings I can remember. As Hamels himself said, "I knew that every pitch mattered. Every inning mattered. We're not in our home park anymore. You definitely focus and try to dig deep."
New pitch, new pitcher
A 10-11 record and 4.32 ERA in 2009 forced Hamels to add another pitch, a cutter, to his arsenal. After some early struggles in 2010 and a 4.08 ERA through June, he boasted a 2.28 ERA in the last three months. Last season, Hamels set season career best marks in ERA, CG, WHIP, H/9, HR/9, BB/9, and SO/BB ratio. Hamels has an ERA of 2.61 in the year and a half since “mastering” the cutter. That mark alone is better than the ERA's 4 of the last 8 Cy Young winners.
Can Hamels keep it going?
But the question remains, is Hamels ready to take the next step towards becoming an elite pitcher? The numbers say Hamels is plenty capable of doing just that.
First of all, Hamels was consistent in 2011. Comparing his averages each month, his WHIP ranged from 0.80 to 1.11, his walks/9 from 1.3 to 2.1, and his hits/9 from 5.9 to 7.6. He was not just lucky.
His overall improvement compared to his career averages is also encouraging. His HR/9 improved from 1.09 to 0.79, his HR/FB from 11.5% to 9.9%, his extra base hit percentage from 8.1% to 6.2%, and his line drive percentage from 18.7% to 15%. Those increases suggest that hitters made weaker contact. Less line drives meant less quality hits and subsequently less extra base hits. Less home runs per fly balls meant he was likely jamming hitters more frequently and keep them off-balance more often.
His walks/9 also improved from 2.26 in his career to 1.83 in 2011, both well in line with Halladay's 1.35 and Lee's 1.62.
Bottom line: Cole Hamels has improved in nearly every facet of his game and that increase has been consistent.
Other factors
Hamels admitted himself during his recent press conference that his sports hernia and loose bodies in his elbow were "both uncomfortable." Common sense tells you that Hamels should pitch even better with those problems resolved.
Finally, how better might Hamels be if got a little run support?
A 2012 Cy Young award for Hamels is a reality
When I picked Hamels to win the Cy Young last year, it was little more than blind faith and hope since he had never performed at quite that level before. But there now exists a year and a half of statistics to back up a Cy Young prediction. I just hope he wins the award after the Phillies lock him up long term and not before the Yankees steal him in free agency.
Comparing Phillies 2011 and 2012 rosters
How does the 2012 Phillies roster compare to last season? On paper, are the Phillies better, worse, or about the same as last year? To find our answer, I removed the stats of the players who left and replaced them with the new players. Lets line up the rosters side by side and see how the numbers compare.
Starting pitching
For the starting rotation, all we need to do is remove Roy Oswalt and replace his spot with Joe Blanton. Since Blanton was injured most of the season, I used his 2010 stats rather than last season. In the chart below, the first line shows the actual totals from 2011 and the second line shows the totals when we replace Oswalt with Blanton.
| Starting pitching comparison | |||||
| W | L | ERA | IP | ER | |
| 2011 | 70 | 36 | 2.89 | 953 | 306 |
| 2012 | 70 | 32 | 3.10 | 997 | 343 |
As you can see, without Oswalt the overall starters' ERA increases only slightly from 2.89 to 3.10.
Bullpen
This offseason, the Phillies lost Madson, Lidge, Romero, and Baez (remember him?) and added Papelbon, Qualls, Willis, and Contreras hopefully for a full season. For the most part I just plugged in their actual stats, but I prorated their numbers in cases like Dontrelle Willis, since he is moving from the starting rotation to the bullpen.
| Bullpen comparison | ||||||
| G | W | L | ERA | IP | ER | |
| 2011 | 398 | 29 | 23 | 3.43 | 480.1 | 183 |
| 2012 | 418 | 57 | 46 | 3.58 | 524.2 | 206 |
The Phillies bullpen looks about the same, with the ERA increasing just a few points, from 3.43 to 3.58.
Phillies overall pitching
Here's what we get when we combing the bullpen and the starters.
| Phillies overall pitching comparison | ||||||
| G | W | L | ERA | IP | ER | |
| 2011 | 99 | 59 | 3.07 | 1433.1 | 489 | |
| 2012 | 127 | 78 | 3.24 | 1521.2 | 549 | |
We can see that on paper the Phillies pitching staff is slightly worse than last season, with an ERA increase of 17 points. As a point of reference, that would have dropped the Phillies to first in the NL to a close second to the Giants.
Left and Right Field
Since we are really only evaluating the offseason changes, I ignored any of the post ions that haven't changed. Obviously injuries to Utley, Howard, and Polanco will have an effect on the team, but that's a discussion for another day. In this case, the only positions with significant changes are left field and right field.
In left field, John Mayberry and Laynce Nix are expected to replace Raul Ibanez. Since they will mostly split the time, I gave half the at-bats to Mayberry, half to Nix, and prorated for Ibanez's number of plate appearances.
Right field was filled last season with a combination of Mayberry, Brown, Francisco, and Pence, so I prorated their totals based on Hunter Pence's total number of at-bats last season. For 2012, I just plugged in Pence's total stats from last season.
Here's how the numbers compare for left and right field:
| LF & RF Comparison | ||||||||||
| G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | AVG | |
| 2011 | 144 | 575 | 535 | 65 | 131 | 31 | 1 | 20 | 84 | .245 |
| 2012 LF | 203 | 576 | 526 | 67 | 137 | 28 | 2 | 28 | 83 | .260 |
The numbers in left and right are closer than you might think. The average is 15 points higher and they have 8 more homers, but the RBI totals are basically the same.
Phillies Bench
The Phillies bench will look drastically different in 2012, as they replaced Francisco, Gload, and Valdez with Wigginton, Nix, and Thome. In order to compare benches, I prorated their statistics according to an estimated number of plate appearances to equal the PA's last season.
| Bench comparison | |||||
| AB | H | HR | RBI | avg. | |
| 2011 | 187 | 42 | 1 | 17 | .225 |
| 2012 | 187 | 45 | 8 | 28 | .242 |
The bench was a big focus over the offseason and it shows, with 7 more HR, 11 more RBI, and a 17 point higher batting average.
Phillies overall hitting
| Overall hitting comparison | |||||
| AB | H | HR | RBI | avg. | |
| 2011 | 1297 | 330 | 45 | 189 | .254 |
| 2012 | 1319 | 372 | 58 | 208 | .282 |
When we look at the effect on the entire offense, it equates to an upgrade of 13 HR, 19 RBIs, and 28 more points in average. Just how much is that? It would improve the Phillies from 9th to 5th in the NL in batting average and 8th to 5th in home runs. And get this: On paper it would move the Phillies from 5th in RBIs to 2nd.
Conclusion
What can we learn from all of this? What we learn is that on paper, the Phillies upgraded slightly in their offense and downgraded slightly in their pitching. Last season the Phillies ranked first in team ERA and 5th in RBI. This year, they would rank second in pitching and second in hitting. All in all, I consider that an upgrade.
Evaluating Phillies offseason moves
With the Phillies roster filling up and Spring Training around the corner, it seemed like a nice time to evaluate the Phillies offseason. After wowing us with one big move after another since taking over for Pat Gillick, Ruben Amaro does not appear to be hiding any more tricks up his sleeve. He may not have performed major offseason surgery, but Ruben conducted a few minor cosmetic procedures. Let’s go through the Phillies’ offseason moves.
Declining options on Lidge and Oswalt
The Phillies had no choice but to decline the $12.5 million option on Brad Lidge (with a $1.5 million buyout) and $16 million option on Roy Oswalt (with a $2 million buyout). Price tags, health, age, and declining stuff made for easy decisions. The Phillies starting rotation will be fine, as they still have three aces and Vance Worley, Joe Blanton, and Kyle Kendrick. And a bullpen full of young, cheap, talent and a quality closer in Papelbon made Lidge expendable. Which brings us to the biggest move of the offseason…
Signing Jonathan Papelbon
Barely a day after they reportedly made an offer to Ryan Madson, the Phillies signed free agent Jonathan Papelbon for $6 million more than what they offered to Madson, showing exactly how they felt. The Phillies may regret taking Papelbon over Madson in three or four years when Papelbon’s arm falls off and he’s still making $12.5 million per year (like Brad Lidge). Not that Madson was high on other teams' lists, either, considering he went from a possible 4 year/$44 million deal with the Phils to a 1 year/$8.5 million deal with Reds. Bottom line for now is this: we had a good closer last year and have a good closer this year.
Signing Jim Thome
Thome was one of those “low risk, high reward” decisions. For $1.25 million, Thome essentially replaces Ross Gload. Thome has only dusted off his first baseman’s glove four times since 2005, so don’t expect to see him wearing leather much with the Phillies. What Thome represents is the power threat off the bench they’ve been lacking since Matt Stairs. Thome hit 15 home runs in 93 games in 2011 and managed a somewhat respectable .256 average. Not bad for the money.
Signing Ty Wigginton
With all of Placido Polanco’s injury problems, the Phillies needed a utility player who could play third. The Phillies eyed Michael Cuddyer as their first choice, but his asking price was too steep (he eventually signed with Colorado for 3 years/$31.5 million). So, they went with Ty Wigginton for $8 million over two years. His power (15 HR in 2011) and versatility (150+ games at three different positions) is nice, but Ruben admitted himself that the Phillies needed better approaches at the plate and Wigginton’s high strikeout/walk rate does not fit the bill. Which leads us into Ruben’s next move…
Signing Laynce Nix
Laynce Nix signifies a complete 180 from Amaro’s talk of better approaches in October, since roughly a month later he signed three “all or nothing” guys. It may be a slight change in philosophy, but Nix is still only a bench piece, and in that regard he offers an upgrade over Ben Francisco. Overall, the Phillies bench is improved with Wigginton, Thome, and Nix essentially replacing Wilson Valdez, Ross Gload, and Ben Francisco. Speaking of Benny Fresh…
Trading Ben Francisco
With the emergence of John Mayberry and signings of two outfielders in Wigginton and Nix, the Phillies didn’t cause much of a stir when they traded Ben Francisco for a minor league reliever. Pretty easy move considering Francisco was due to receive a raise over his $1.5 million salary in arbitration.
Goodbye Raul
After hitting just .245 in 2011, there was no way the Phillies were going to keep Ibanez around. Oddly enough, the Phillies still offered arbitration to Ibanez with the understanding that he would not accept (how the Phillies worked that deal is beyond me). Anyway, with a young option available in left field with Mayberry, Ibanez has no place on an aging Phillies roster.
Domonic Brown in the minors
The fact that it isn’t big news that Domonic Brown will likely spend the year at Lehigh Valley says it all. The Dom Brown experiment at this point has failed. The former “untouchable” draft pick had a tough 2011. Not only did he hit just .245 with the Phillies, but he was caught not running out a ball, forgot to touch second base, and played the outfield like a blind newborn giraffe. Then he returned to the minors and hit .261 with zero homers in 41 games. Maybe it was just too much, too quickly for Dom. Grabbing Hunter Pence hopefully takes the pressure off and Brown can get some necessary work done in the shop.
No Rule 5 pick
The Phils decided not to take a player in the Rule 5 Draft for the first time since 2005. I think this is a mistake. It only costs $50,000 to grab a Rule 5 player, and if you return him you get half the money back. A payroll approaching $200 million and they don’t want to risk 50 grand? The Rule 5 Draft is filled with Victorinos and Werths waiting to make an impact in the majors. They may have missed out on a better version of Michael Martinez or a lefty reliever. Why not give a guy a shot and see what happens?
Trading Wilson Valdez
After filling a valuable bench role and playing 210 games for the Phillies over the last two seasons, the Phils decided to part ways with Wilson Valdez. It was most likely a cost saving measure since Michael Martinez can fill the same role for half the price, but that price becomes much higher if history repeats itself with more injuries to Rollins, Utley, and Polanco.
Signing Chad Qualls
Having just saved about $500,000 by moving Valdez, the Phillies soon spent it when they acquired reliever Chad Qualls for $1.15 million. With plenty of veteran and young arms in the bullpen and several more quality pitchers in the minors, it seems to me that using that money on Valdez was the wiser choice.
Signing Juan Pierre to minor league deal
This was a really nice move for the Phillies. Juan Pierre provides a jolt of speed to a team lacking in that area. Pierre won’t steal 68 bags like he did in 2010, but he offers some late inning speed and another option in left field if the John Mayberry experiment fails.
Signing Dontrelle Willis
And finally there is Dontrelle Willis. Dontrelle’s career took a nosedive after a couple great seasons with the Marlins, but his funky delivery keeps teams like the Phillies hoping he can find that magic once again. For a million bucks, the former Marlins star is a good investment. Rather than try Dontrelle as a starter where he has a 5.65 ERA since 2006, the Phillies will take Dontrelle’s .127 average against lefties in 2011 and throw him in the bullpen. If pitching doesn’t work out, the Phillies can always use him as another bat off the bench. The other perk? He’s good friends with Rollins, so maybe he can keep Jimmy in line.
Chase Utley is a natural lefty
Chase Utley has been hiding a deep, dark secret for nearly his entire life, a baseball disability no one could ever know. Chase Utley's secret? He is left-handed.
It’s articles like these that separate bloggers from real journalists. Thing is, I have absolutely no evidence to back up my claim. I searched far and wide and came up blank. In fact, one story shows that Utley would probably be batting right-handed today if it wasn’t for his dad’s laziness.
But hear me out…there is still good reason to believe that Chase Utley is naturally left-handed.
Proof (OK, just guesses) why Chase Utley is a lefty
Just look at the way Utley throws. It’s weird, right? There is no reason why a man with such physical gifts should be such an awkward thrower. I contend that it makes more sense that Utley is so physically gifted, he’s able to look fairly normal throwing with the wrong hand. Try it sometime and you'll know what I mean.
It also takes Utley way too long to release the ball to first on a routine play and he double pumps on nearly every grounder. Chase doesn’t look like the kind of guy who is willing to take any play for granted like that. So why does he do it? Because he needs to send a signal to his brain before he can throw. Throwing should require no conscience thought whatsoever, but Chase needs to remind his brain if he wants his arm to cooperate.
Then the 2009 World Series exposed him for what he really is. Chase hid his illness quite skillfully during his career, but World Series pressure finally exacerbated the issue. In pressure situations, the best therapy is generally to rely on your natural ability and instincts. Unfortunately, Utley’s instincts told him to use the other hand!
The question begs to be asked: why didn’t Chase throw left-handed to begin with? Glad you asked.
Why does Utley throw right-handed?
A hard nosed, intense player like Utley wants to be in the middle of the action as much as possible, meaning he has three choices: catcher, shortstop, or second base. My guess is that his speed eliminated catching, so he was left with shortstop and second. Problem is, lefties can’t play middle infield because they need to pivot in order to throw to first and it takes too long.
So Utley had to fake it.
He obviously tried shortstop, the quarterback of the defense, first. Surprisingly enough, that lasted all the way through high school. But Utley was such a tremendous athlete, he made it work and he’s been fooling people ever since. Well, you don’t fool me, Chase.
I would bet if you followed Chase around you would see him write, draw, paint, and eat with his left hand. He probably even, ehem, wipes with his left hand. He can keep knowledge of that last one to himself.
What can Phillies expect from Vance Worley in 2012?
Vance Worley’s emergence on the MLB scene was easily one of the nicest surprises for the 2011 Phillies. But what kind of story will unfold for Worley in 2012? Worley went from mediocre minor leaguer to dominant major leaguer overnight, going 7-1 with a 2.02 ERA in his first 11 starts with the Phillies. Then he came back to Earth and finished with a 4.17 ERA in his final 12 games (2 in relief). So which character will Vance Worley play in 2012? Jekyll or Hyde?
A tale of two halves for Vance Worley
In comparing Worley's first eleven games with his last twelve, even while his ERA was skyrocketing, in many ways Worley was improving.
His control numbers are one area that improved. Worley threw 63.6% of his pitches for strikes in his first 11 games and 65.2% in his last 12. His walks/9 decreased from 3.41 to 2.83, while his strikeouts per game rose from 6.69 to 9.85. That difference improved his strikeout to walk ratio from 2:1 (1.96) to nearly 4:1 (3.47).
If Worley was around the plate more, it stands to reason that hitters made more contact. But that was not the case. His contact percentage against went from 87.2% to 87.1% and their swing and miss percentage only changed from 43.1% to 41.6%.
Reasons for Worley's inflated ERA
If his strikeouts increased, walks decreased, and batters were making contact just as much, what caused his ERA to double?
One reason is a spike in his home run rate. Worley's home run/fly ball rate during his hot stretch was 2.6%, which is less than 3 home runs per 100 fly balls and way below the MLB average of 9.6%. Maybe Worley was effective at putting hitters off-balance to keep the ball in the yard, but it is impossible to maintain such an obscenely low rate.
A few percentage points makes a significant difference. If Worley had equaled the MLB average, he would have tossed 8 more home run balls. If each homer scored 1.5 runs, that equals 12 more runs and his ERA would have increased to 3.54.
Secondly, as Corey Seidman pointed out, Worley's line drive percentage increased by 16 percentage points. Line drives result in hits 73% of the time versus 23% for grounders, which might explain why his batting average against rose from .199 to .278. More line drives indicate players were seeing the ball better. Worley might have thrown the same amount of strikes, but hitters were making better contact on the balls they hit.
The luck factor
It is also quite possible that more homers, more line drives, and a higher ERA is more of a factor of luck than anything else. Three stats and some sabermetrics help account for the luck factor.
LOB (Left On Base)%
Worley's LOB was 79.9% in the first half and 76.2% in the second half, both just slightly higher than the MLB average of 72.5%. Worley's high LOB demonstrates his mental toughness and ability to handle adverse situations. It’s also good to see a reasonable number here, because too many weird things happen in the game of baseball to expect any pitcher to maintain an abnormally high rate.
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play)
BABIP is just what it sounds like, the opponents batting average on balls hit between the white lines. For the game of inches that baseball is, anything drastic on either side should raise a red flag. Worley's BABIP went from .268 in his first 11 to .304 in his last 12. Both are within the range of the MLB average of .291 and it shows how his fortune may have changed throughout the year.
FIP (Fielding Indeterminate Pitching)
FIP is supposed to be the ultimate non-luck stat, determining what a pitcher's ERA would be in a luck-neutral environment by excluding defense and game situations. It theoretically tells you what a pitcher’s ERA should be. Worley's FIP in his first 11 games was 3.36 and his late FIP was 3.29.
Vance Worley's FIP seems to validate the rest of his numbers. We saw that even though his ERA skyrocketed, batters weren’t behaving much differently at the plate and Worley was walking less and striking out more. His FIP reflected that, suggesting that he was much more consistent than his ERA indicated. At the end of the day, Worley's fortune evened out over the entire season and his overall ERA of 3.01 was close to his FIP of 3.32.
What does this all mean for Worley in 2012?
Worley maintained a consistent approach of throwing strikes and trusting the defense behind him. As much as we might be inclined to focus on his ballooning ERA and assume hitters figured him out, most of the stats don't endorse that idea. There is no reason to expect Vance Worley can't replicate his performance on the mound next season. If he brings the same game next season, we should see an ERA around 3.50.
However...
If Worley wants to remain in the big leagues, he needs another pitch. Worley caught batters looking on his two-seamer that ran back across the plate for called third strikes, but he didn't induce many whiffs for strike three. In order to survive, Worley must find a put away pitch. He needs a pitch with some bite like a slider or something that can fool them like a nasty curve or a changeup.
Hitters will adjust to Worley. Now he needs to adjust to them.
Phillies look alikes
This is a boring time if you are a Phillies fan, so I thought it might be fun to play around with Phillies look alikes. Anyone from the Phillies organization is a possible target in the Phillies look alike game, but I left out any obviously embarrassing ones since this is just for fun.
Well, here are your
PHILLIES LOOK ALIKES
Placido Polanco - Enrico Colantoni
I don’t know why, but this one is hilarious.
Ben Francisco – Carlton Banks
He may not be on the Phils anymore, but I couldn’t pass this up. Play some Tom Jones for Benny Fresh and see if he can dance as well as Carlton.
Chase Utley – Mike Richards
Talking about brothers, how about long lost brothers? Listen to their postgame comments and tell me they aren't related.
Jimmy Rollins - Sylvester Stalone
Is it just me or do these guys have the same jaws?
Roy Halladay – Chris Carpenter
Did you hear how Halladay saved a boy from an anaconda on his fishing trip with Chris Carpenter? Save one life, drown Chris Carpenter. Seems like a fair trade to me.
Cole Hamels - White Collar guy
Especially with a nickname like Hollywood Hamels, Cole is a dead ringer for Neal on White Collar.
Carlos Ruiz - Phil Collins
Oh, this isn’t the Phillies weirdest song intro? How in the heck did Ruiz get stuck with “In the Air Tonight” anyway? I would bet my mortgage Ruiz has never listened to a Phil Collins song in his life.
Larry Anderson - Buffalo Bill from Silence of the Lambs
If you run into Larry, ask him to say, “It puts the lotion on its skin or else it gets the hose again.”
Jim Jackson – Ned Flanders
Okaley Dokely!
Ryan Howard - Corey Howard
Couldn’t find anyone for Ryan, so here is a picture of his fraternal twin brother Corey
Antonio Bastardo - Deshawn Jackson
The look alike, both make less than a mil, and neither wants to come across the middle.
Roy Oswalt - Doogie Howser
Roy Oswalt is really a doctor, but he plays a ballplayer on TV.
Charlie Manuel – Santa Claus
I don’t mean this as a joke because I love Charlie. He has the white hair, he’s jolly, and I bet he would kill as a mall Santa.
Bill Giles – Dave Thomas
Mmmm...Wendy’s
Have any good Phillies look-alikes of your own? Just click Contact Us and drop me a line.
What the heck happened to Dontrelle Willis?
Dontrelle Willis has officially signed with the Phillies. Had this news come prior to the 2006 season, adding Willis would have been huge news. Dontrelle had just finished his third season with a 22-10 record and a 2.68 ERA with the Florida Marlins. At the age of just 23, Willis had a career 3.27 ERA and was well on his way to becoming an elite starting pitcher. His funky delivery, electric personality, and ability to swing the bat made Dontrelle Willis one of the main faces of Major League Baseball.
Fast forward to 2012...
In the six years since his peak in 2005, Dontrelle Willis has a 26-39 record and a 5.01 ERA. Those numbers led to Dontrelle signing a one year contract for less than a million dollars...as no more than a lefty specialist. So, I ask the question again...
What happened to Dontrelle Willis?
In a case like Dontrelle Willis where a player drops so hard, so fast, it is almost always an issue with velocity or command. My first inclination is to look for a decrease in velocity and it does appear his velocity dropped a little. Reliable velocity charts only date back to around 2008, so it's hard to say exactly how much his speed declined, but the reports I read show that his fastball averaged 92-93 mph until 2005 and dropped to 89-90 mph as of 2008 and has held steady since. Three mph is a fairly significant drop, but probably not enough to explain a collapse of this magnitude.
Willis lost control and can't command
At the face of it, Dontrelle Willis just lost control and command of his pitches. The stats point this out very clearly. Willis went from 2.63 walks per nine innings in his first three seasons to 4.67 in the 6 seasons since. That's nearly twice as many walks. More walks means Willis is behind in the count much more often and it also suggests that he is throwing less quality strikes. Just imagine if Roy Halladay doubled his walks.
A slight drop in velocity and a higher walk rate explains why Dontrelle Willis is so much worse, but the main culprit of how it happened comes down to mechanics.
It's all mechanical with Dontrelle Willis
As "The Hardball Times" pointed out in 2007, changes to Dontrelle's mechanics explains it all. It shouldn't come as a huge surprise that Willis would eventually run into mechanical issues with such a funky delivery. With so many moving parts in his delivery, one small issue can cause a domino effect. Poor mechanics leads to decreased velocity, difficulty commanding pitches, and eventually mental issues. It's all pretty simple.
It's probably too late to expect the old Dontrelle Willis to miraculously take the mound in a Phillies uniform, but maybe a move to the bullpen will take some pressure off. This is a classic Pat Gillick move and there's no doubt he played a part in the decision. Who knows, maybe Gillick can pull another genie out of a bottle.
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