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We all know that Charlie Manuel does not exactly have the speaking presence of JFK when he is in front of cameras. But people continually claim that Charlie is one of the best hitting coaches around. Really? So you mean to tell me that bumbling guy in front of the mike is a hitting guru of sorts?
How is that possible? Well, Charlie gave us an answer when he explained better than anyone why the Phillies have been struggling so much offensively this year. I’ve heard all sorts of answers from no swagger to a delayed World Series hangover to the whole Cliff Lee situation. Both nothing concrete until now.
"They've made adjustments to us, and we haven't made adjustments to them," Manuel said. "If you sit there day in and day out and watch us play for the last couple of years, especially Jimmy and Victorino, they got more fastballs. Now they get a lot of breaking balls, a lot of changeups. Then the pitchers like to ride fastballs up and out of the strike zone. And they're aggressive and they like to chase them. And they go to school on a lot of our hitters.”
That is pretty insightful by Charlie Manuel, don’t you think?
"When they make adjustments, you're supposed to make adjustments with them. We need to improve. We can make adjustments. If I want to summarize it real quick, they pitch us backward. They start us soft and finish hard. If they get ahead of us, they'll try to finish us up and out of the strike zone."
Then he discussed the issue of walks. See, the Phillies rank 9th in the league with 298 walks. After ranking first in 2005, 2006, and 2007, they dropped to fifth in 2008, seventh last year, and now ninth.
"We do not walk," Charlie Manuel said.
"We don't teach walking," Manuel said. "But get a good ball to hit. By getting a good ball to hit, it means you're working the count. When you see us up 3-0 or 3-1 and we're chasing a changeup or breaking ball, that's focus. That's not discipline. That's getting away from the things that we had before."
As good as it is to hear a solid answer as to why the Phils’ offense has done nothing all year, it is alarming to hear those comments. If batters refuse to adjust to pitchers and take what they are giving them, they have nobody but themselves to blame for missing the playoffs.
If pitchers are pitching backwards, we should not be seeing first pitch swinging. You swing at the first pitch because you assume you will get a good fastball to hit. If you aren’t getting that fastball, DON’T SWING.
That’s what they were doing in the beginning of the year. Remember how we were working pitch counts and walking a lot? Giving patient at-bats?
It's not fire that the Phillies are missing, it's discipline. Yes, injuries have hurt this club. But when you give undisciplined at-bats and refuse to make adjustments, you have given up the right to use injuries as an excuse.
After losing 3 of 4 to the Cubs to start the second half, the Phillies need to start stringing some wins together. They had the lead early against the Cards in the first of a 4 game series, but couldn’t hold it. They ended up losing 8-4 to St. Louis. The loss drops the Phillies to six games behind the Braves in the National League East and into sixth place in the NL Wild Card race.
The Phillies got on the board first. They scored their first run after singles by Polanco and Ibanez followed by a one-out double by Ryan Howard. With runners at second and third, Jayson Werth failed once again to knock them in and he was out number two. But Shane Victorino came through with a big two-out single to score two and give the Phillies a 3-0 lead.
Kyle Kendrick gave up runs in each of the first two innings, but held a 4-2 lead in the fifth after the Phils scored on an RBI single by Jimmy Rollins in the fourth inning.
Then disaster struck in the fifth. Kendrick walked Felipe Lopez with one out then Jon Jay doubled to left-center field to make it 4-3.
Now it was time for Albert Pujols to bat. He had hit just .170 (8-for-47) with one home run and three RBIs in his previous 12 games against the Phillies, but Pujols ended that streak. Kyle Kendrick left a pitch over the plate and Pujols slammed it an estimated 422 ft to give the Cards a 5-4 lead.
After getting Colby Rasmus to ground into the second out, Allen Craig and Skip Schumaker hit back-to-back bombs to make it 7-4. That would end the night for Kendrick.
The Phillies were unable to score a single run beyond that point and lost 8-4 to the Cards. Reality might be starting to set it in, because the Phillies are not giving any indication that they belong in the postseason.
2010 Phillies Win/Loss Chart
This chart follows the Phillies' progress through each of the games in 2009. You can also view other 2009 stats, game by game results tables, player stats, as well as historical stats in the Stats page. The Stats page also shows a graph of the Phillies' records under Charlie Manuel.
Moving right along in our 2010 Phillies predictions, we change our sites to the infield. Injuries have just killed the Phillies infielders. Ryan Howard is the only infielder who has not missed SIGNIFICANT time on the DL. How about this for a number: The Phillies infield has missed a total of 96 games on the Disabled List.
Click here for a link to the original 2010 Phillies infield predictions.
Infield
First Base
Prediction:
SAME
Result: SAME...kind of
The results for Ryan Howard have been basically the same, but in a very different way. The difference is very clear: Howard has hit 5 less home runs but has a 42 point higher batting average. Despite less power, Howard managed to have just 2 less RBI's. I like what I've seen from Howard. He put up pretty darn decent numbers without hitting his hot streak yet. You never know, we might be watching Ryan Howard evolving in front of our eyes.
Click here to view all of the career stats for Ryan Howard.
Second Base
Prediction:
BETTER
Result: WORSE
This part is embarrassing. You have to look at my original predictions for Utley. It wasn't enough for me to pick him to have a career year; I had to pick him to win NL MVP.
Not only will Utley not be either of those, but he could end up being the main reason why the Phillies miss the playoffs. Who would have thought that Wilson Valdez would be not much different in our lineup than Chase Utley? Here are his first half numbers (but keep in mind he missed 15 games with the thumb injury): .277 batting average, 11 homers, and 37 RBIs. Those aren't the worst numbers in the world, but they are for your number 3 hitter and for a guy that is making a ton of money.
If you want a good laugh, take a gander at my final prediction for Utley. "..in 2010 Utley will hit above .300 with 30+ homers, 100+ RBIs, and 100+ runs scored. Mark it down, this is Utley's year to follow Rollins and Howard as the Most Valuable Player."
Click here to view all of the career stats for Chase Utley.
Shortstop
Prediction:
Slightly Better
Result: N/A
If you doubted the effects of Jimmy Rollins' leadership before, you are crazy if you aren't a believer now. When the Phillies were going through a historic offensive slump, you had to wonder what would Jimmy have done to make things better. Two separate calf injuries took Jimmy Rollins out of over half the games this season, and boy did that hurt.
Outside of his leadership in the clubhouse and in the field, Jimmy has already made his presence felt even further. In just a couple weeks since his return from the DL, J-Roll has not one but two walk-off hits. Do you think it is a coincidence that we are getting clutch wins now? I think not.
Jimmy spent too much time on the DL for prediction yet. We will have to see how it plays out at the end.
Click here to view all of the career stats for Jimmy Rollins.
Third Base
Prediction:
Much Better
Result: Much Better
Anybody but Pedro Feliz. Thank god that guy is outta here. We traded in terrible at-bats, wild swinging, zero emotion, and double-plays galore for the dream #2 batter. Polanco has missed 25 games this year, but no matter what he is still better than Feliz (who is hitting .220 with 3 homers and 26 RBIs by the way).
Polanco has been everything we asked for when he played. Polanco hit .318 with 5 homers, 27 RBIs, and 39 runs scored. And he brought with him tremendous plate discipline. Despite lots of time off, still MUCH better than last year.
Click here to view all of the career stats for Placido Polanco.
Yesterday, we examined my 2010 Phillies predictions for the starting pitching. Now we turn our attention to the bullpen. Injuries have played a big role with the Phillies bullpen, so it will be hard to judge them, but we can at least take a look.
Click here for a link to the original 2010 Phillies bullpen predictions.
Bullpen
Brad Lidge vs. Brad Lidge
Prediction:
MUCH BETTER
Result: BETTER
I really thought that with the knee problems behind him, Lidge would be lights-out once again. So far in 2010, it doesn't appear that Lidge is a whole heck of a lot better than last year. It would be nearly impossible for him to be even remotely close to as bad as last year, but 3 blown saves in 4 chances at one point does not exactly scream dominance. At times he has looked like the '08 Lidge, but then he comes back with a clunker. Overall, he has a 4.60 ERA, 6 saves, and 3 blown saves.
If Lidge doesn't improve soon, Ruben Amaro may need to investigate finding a "real" closer at the trade deadline. Either that, or give Romero, Durbin, or (gulp) Madson a chance. Hard to believe a 4.60 ERA is considered better, but it is compared to an 0-8 record with a 7.21 ERA and 11 blown saves. .
Ryan Madson vs. Ryan Madson
Prediction:
BETTER
Result: Same
If Ryan Madson wasn't a complete dope, maybe we could give a true comparison to last year. But in the absolute bone head move of the year, Madson decided to kick a chair, break his toe, and leave us with guys like Baez for a couple months. As stupid as he might be, we can REALLY use Madson down the stretch. The less we have to use Baez, the better.
Chad Durbin vs. Chad Durbin
Prediction: SAME
Result: SAME
Injuries, injuries, and more injuries. As bad as Madson's injury hurt the Phillies, Chad Durbin going down hurt equally as much. When he has pitched, Durbin has been the utility man of the bullpen. He pitched a few times in middle relief, but really helped the Phils as an "innings eater." If Durbin can return and pitch like he has during his time this season, he will definitely get a BETTER rating. Last season, he had a 4.39 ERA, but in 29 games this year he has been a respectable 3.39.
J.C. Romero vs. J.C. Romero
Prediction:
SLIGHTLY WORSE
Result: SAME
My initial prediction for JC Romero was based on his 2008 numbers since he only pitched 21 innings last year. He pitched a 81 innings in '08 with a 2.75 ERA. Although Romero has appeared in 28 games, he has only pitched 18.2 innings. His ERA is actually better than 2008 at 2.41, but he’s now more of a lefty specialist than a guy we really count on. Where is the guy who was a stud in the pen down the stretch? You gotta wonder if something is going on that we don't know about. If Charlie trusts Romero enough to pitch him in the ninth, why don't we see more of him in the eighth?
Danyz Baez & Jose Contreras vs. Chan Ho Park & Scott Eyre
Prediction:
WORSE
Result: WORSE
If there is one guy that I would be content to not see pitch another game for the Phillies, it is Danyz Baez. He seems like a nice enough person but he is sickening to watch. Baez has given up 49 baserunners in 32.1 innings and has a 4.45 ERA. That's bad for a reliever. Charlie Manual finally figured out that Baez stinks and demoted him to more of a middle relief role. He can throw hard, but he can't hit his spots, and is guaranteed to throw at least one hanging breaking ball per at-bat. Good choice on that guy, Ruben.
As for Jose Contreras, he's been pretty good for the Phillies. He's another guy who can only pitch every other game, but he's been good when he's been in there. He slowed down after a super start, but he still has a solid 2.79 ERA.
I picked this one right. In 42 games, Scott Eyre had a 1.50 ERA and was very effective in limited action. As for Chan Ho Park, he was awesome in his role as reliever. Park had a 2.52 ERA in 38 relief appearances. Clearly better than Baez and Contreras.
It doesn't look like anyone will be knocking down my door to sign me up as their GM anytime soon. I'll admit it, my 2010 Phillies predictions were not good. OK, they were bad. But let's face it. Almost every offensive player on the Phils underproduced compared to last year, so anybody who predicted correctly is just not a fan. That's my excuse anyway.
Here we go: it is time to review my 2010 Phillies predictions. I did OK with my predictions for the Phils' starting pitchers, so let's start there.
Click here for a link to the original 2010 Phillies starting pitching predictions.
Starting Pitchers
1) Roy Halladay vs. Cliff Lee/Cole Hamels
Prediction:
BETTER
Result: BETTER
There is no question about this one. Roy Halladay was a tremendous upgrade over the top spot in the rotation last year. And yes, that includes Cliff Lee. If we take a look at the top spot in the rotation last year, there is no comparison. You don't need my analysis on this one so we will let the numbers speak for themselves.
Roy Halladay has a 10-7 record, 2.19 ERA, 148 innings, 7 complete games, 3 complete game shutouts, and oh yeah, a perfect game. Compare that to the combined number of Lee and Hamels last year. Hamels, 10-11, 4.39 ERA. Cliff Lee, 7-4 record with Phillies and a 3.39 ERA.
2. Cole Hamels vs. Cole Hamels
Prediction:
BETTER
Result: BETTER
I got this prediction right, but I had to. Cole Hamels was the biggest and most important question mark heading into this season. We needed Hamels to step up, and he most certainly did. He came up with a few new pitches in the offseason and arrived to Spring Training in great shape. To his credit, he continued to use his cutter and curveball early on, even when they weren't working. Even better, he didn't get all bent out of shape for each little thing that didn't go his way. Simply put, he started pitching like a #1 starter.
What a difference a year makes. Last year at the break, he had a 5-5 record with a 4.87 ERA in 98 innings. This year, it's a 7-7 record, 3.78 ERA in 112 innings. Quite a difference.
3. Joe Blanton vs. Joe Blanton
Prediction:
Slightly Worse
Result: Much Worse
Nobody expected all that much from Joe Blanton. You could normally figure Blanton to pitch 6 innings and give up 3 runs every outing. Not this year. Even ignoring the fact that he was out for a month (thank God), Blanton has been terrible. His numbers this year say it all: 3-5 record, 6.41 ERA, 103 hits, 18 runs, and 121 total baserunners in 80 innings. Ruben Amaro could have kept Cliff Lee for 9 million this year, but he chose instead to sign Blanton for 8 million. Can you say Adam Eaton?
4. JA Happ vs. JA Happ/Chan Ho Park
Prediction:
Worse
Result: N/A
It would have been intriguing to see how Happ would fare in his second full season. But because he has been injured pretty much all year, we will have to wait until the second half of the season to get our answer.
5. Jamie Moyer vs. Jamie Moyer
Prediction: SAME
Result: MUCH BETTER
I said before the season that Moyer is no better or worse than a 5.00 ERA. His ERA is actually fairly close at 4.51, but if you take away his outing against the Red Sox where he gave up 9 runs in just one inning, his ERA drops to 4.22. Not bad for a 47 year old guy. Furthermore, he has 2 complete games and became the oldest pitcher in history to throw a complete game shutout. Had the Phillies scored some more runs for the old guy, he had a fighting chance to make the all-star team...AT 47!
The Phillies could not have possibly planned a better start to their All-Star break. Obviously sweeping a four game series against a first place team with 3 walk-offs is a great way to finish. But I am NOT saying that the Phils are a red hot team right now.
In fact, I am essentially arguing the exact opposite. I would say that the team itself is playing no better than before. And would you consider 2 runs in the last 21 innings exactly lighting up the scoreboard?
But that is exactly my point. See, the guys who PRAY for the all-star break are the guys who AREN'T hitting well. That basically accounts for THE PHILLIES' ENTIRE OFFENSE. There is not a SINGLE PHILLIES HITTER who could honestly say they are swinging a hot bat, so the break WILL NOT HURT ANYONE.
The great thing about that is the Phils get all the benefits of a long rest and none of the drawbacks. And the team has sucked so bad that only Ryan Howard is playing in the all-star game, and he is the one guy who would be hurt the least by playing!
Despite having a bad first half, losing the most important series of the season to the Braves, and not hitting for almost an entire four game series against the Reds, the PHILLIES ACTUALLY WALK AWAY WITH CONFIDENCE.
Just the positives, man. By winning this four game series, the Philadelphia Phillies earned the right to enjoy their time off and enjoy the break. They aren't thinking about double-plays, strikeouts, base-running blunders, and missed opportunities. They are thinking about what they can do to prove again they are the team to beat.
They can feel good about their team and start out fresh on July 15 in Chicago. And as they always do with their backs against the wall, the Phillies will come out fighting.
To say the Phillies offense is worse than last year would be a huge understatement. But how do some our key players compare to last year? To answer that question, I decided to look at just the main power guys in the Phils lineup: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, and Jayson Werth.
To keep it simple, we will compare their numbers straight up with the same number of games played last year and just focus on the main hitting categories. This allows for an exact comparison to last season. Here they are:
| |
|
G |
H |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
AVG |
OBP |
| 2009 |
Ryan Howard |
85 |
85 |
22 |
67 |
41 |
.257 |
.341 |
| 2010 |
Ryan Howard |
85 |
101 |
17 |
65 |
26 |
.299 |
.352 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 |
Chase Utley |
72 |
80 |
17 |
52 |
48 |
.304 |
.432 |
| 2010 |
Chase Utley |
72 |
73 |
11 |
37 |
40 |
.277 |
.383 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 |
Raul Ibanez |
83 |
99 |
26 |
75 |
32 |
.306 |
.370 |
| 2010 |
Raul Ibanez |
83 |
71 |
7 |
39 |
39 |
.247 |
.331 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 |
Jayson Werth |
82 |
81 |
20 |
56 |
52 |
.258 |
.362 |
| 2010 |
Jayson Werth |
82 |
81 |
13 |
49 |
39 |
.282 |
.367 |
Ryan Howard's numbers are very interesting. Everyone has been talking about his lack of power, but his production is nearly identical. If you think about it, we should be giving a lot of credit to Howard. He has basically sacrificed a little power for a higher average and on base percentage. And he has nearly the same amount of RBIs with less guys on base in front of him.
Chase Utley is a different story. Utley's numbers are down in every single major category: 6 less homers, 15 less RBIs, his average is down 27 points and his on-base percentage is 49 points lower. Injured or not, Utley's struggles at the plate hurt the Phillies in a big, big, way.
If you have a weak stomach, you may not want to look at Raul Ibanez's numbers. He puts Chase Utley to shame in his decline. Wait until you see this: IBANEZ HAS 19 LESS HOMERS AND 36 LESS RBI'S. That is simply unbelievable. It would be tough for anyone to measure up to what he did the first half of 2009, but that is ridiculous.
Finally Jayson Werth. It is hard to believe, but Werth's numbers aren't as far off from last year as you might think. He has quite a few less homers, but his RBIs are close and his batting average is much higher. However, his numbers are clearly lower overall and that is despite a very hot start for Werth. He has time to make up for it, but if this trend continues, Werth will not get anywhere near the money he wanted in free agency.
Now for the group numbers of Howard, Utley, Ibanez, and Werth:
| |
H |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
AVG |
OBP |
| 2009 |
345 |
85 |
250 |
173 |
.293 |
.369 |
| 2010 |
326 |
48 |
190 |
144 |
.264 |
.341 |
No, it's not pretty. The difference between 2009 and 2010 breaks down to this:
37 LESS home runs
60 LESS RBIs
29 Point LOWER batting average
28 Point LOWER On-base percentage
If you run those numbers over an entire season, that's 74 less home runs and 120 less RBI's. That's pretty powerful stuff right there. And that is clearly not gonna hack it if we can catch the Braves.
THE YANKEES BUY CHAMPIONSHIPS. It is JUST THAT SIMPLE.
The New York Yankees’ payroll is $206 million. That number may not mean much to you, but chew on this: the Yankees' payroll is $44 million than the next highest team (Red Sox).
That DIFFERENCE between the Yankees and the second highest payroll is higher than the ENTIRE TEAM SALARIES of two teams (Padres and Pirates). Their payroll is $33 million dollars more than the bottom 4 teams COMBINED. The numbers are staggering.
It is simply disgraceful that one team can dwarf the entire league by that much. What kind of skill does it take to buy the best and most expensive player and plop him on your team?
Do you remember those good Braves teams during the 90’s? The Braves earned their NL East crowns and World Series because they needed to constantly revive their farm system and trade talented players like Dave Justice to keep an affordable team salary.
The Yankees never have to worry about that.
A perfect example is what they did last year. Yankees fans were enraged that their team had not won a World Series in 9 years. So what was GM Brian Cashman to do? Would he bring up a shining star from the minors? Would he make a trade for a big time player? Would he look for a “diamond in the rough” like JC Romero? Would he make a strategic pickup of a guy like Jamie Moyer or take a chance on a Rule 5 player?
Of course not! Brian Cashman asked himself, “who is the best free agent player available?” Then bought CC Sabathia. Then found the second best, AJ Burnett, then BOUGHT HIM. Now he needed a hitter. Time to buy Mark Tiexiera.
That is such a joke. What skill does it take to just buy the best free agent available? There’s no risk in that. But that’s what they do in the Bronx.
Then the Yankees won the world series (yes, thanks to us) and their fans take full credit, citing the history of the organization and how much they deserve it.
Admittedly, the Phillies have a high payroll themselves at $141 million, but there is a big difference: the Phillies grew their talent themselves and those players became the core. Every single infielder on the Phillies except for Polanco came from the Phillies farm system. Shane Victorino was a rule 5 guy and the Phillies took Jayson Werth from baseball oblivion.
When the Phillies wanted to grab a pitcher at the deadline last year, they needed to trade a bunch of prospects to get Cliff Lee. When they wanted Roy Halladay, they needed to trade Cliff Lee and some more prospects.
But the Yankees don't need prospects because they just pluck the big name free agent. Don't mention that to Yankees fans, however. They consider it their God given right to win championships. That doesn't sound like too much fun to me.
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