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Phillies Minor League Team Info
| Chase Utley is a natural lefty
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| G | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| Jerry Hairston | 120 | 337 | .270 | .344 | .383 | .727 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 142 | 567 | .268 | .338 | .399 | .736 |
Defensively, Hairston has been fine, posting a .974 career fielding percentage at shortstop, although he has only played 146 games at shortstop over his 7 year career. If the Phillies are confident Hairston can hold his own defensively at shortstop over a whole season, they may not lose much offensively. The other perk: Hairston made only $2 million last year and has signed one year contracts in the past. Jimmy will be looking for $8-10 million and at least three years.
Don't bet on Hairston, though. Hairston has not played much shortstop and has been essentially a bench player for a reason. As intriguing as it sounds, there's no way Ruben Amaro will replace his team "captain" for a utility player.
If Nick Punto can reproduce his 2011 offensive numbers, he would be a fantastic fit for the Phils. Punto hit .278 with a .388 on-base percentage in 63 games with the Cardinals last season. Punto's OBP is 110 points higher than his batting average, which is significant considering the average differential between batting average and OBS is 66 points. Better yet, his differential is 98 points over the last three seasons. What that means is that Punto knows how to find a way on base, and the Phillies desperately need that type of player on their roster.
The Phillies cannot bank on Punto replicating his 2011 figures since he only hit .248 over the last three seasons. The obvious other question is his defense. Punto has a .974 fielding percentage in 265 career games at shortstop, but, as with Hairston, it remains to be seen if Punto can play consistently over an entire season. The Phillies may try to grab Punto and he only made $750,000 last year, but I wouldn't expect to see him replacing Jimmy Rollins.
Ramon Santiago has played 438 games at shortstop over his career (27 in 2011) with a career .976 fielding percentage. But Santiago is a downgrade over Rollins offensively, with a .260 average, 5 HR, and 30 RBIs last season with the Tigers. Santiago also had a low on-base percentage (.311), struck out over twice as much as he walked, and had no steals. Vote no on Santiago.
Hairston and Punto are nice players and would come a lot cheaper than Rollins, but they aren't the kind of guys that a World Series contender with cash to spend is likely to trust as their starting shortstops. It looks more and more likely that Ruben Amaro will have to bite the bullet and sign Rollins to a three or four year deal (nobody is gonna give him 5 years) for more money than he wants to spend. Unless he can make a trade, we are probably going to see Rollins in a Phillies uniform for a few more years.
Trading for Ty Wigginton is a good “only if” move. Wigginton is a good trade by Ruben Amaro “only if” it is not his final bench move. The Phillies needed a utility man who could play third, first, and maybe outfield, and Wigginton fits the bill. His .245 average over the last two seasons won’t wow you, but he averaged 18.5 homers over that span. Since Wigginton is probably replacing either Valdez or Martinez, it is a serious upgrade offensively. Wigginton carries a $2 million price tag, which is not a lot in general, but it is pricey for a bench player.
But adding Ty Wigginton does not address the main problem which was exposed in Game 5 of the NLDS: the Phillies need more grinders. When the Phillies stared down Chris Carpenter, who was clearly on his game, they needed a fire-starter, someone who could get into Carpenter’s head. A bunt single, a bloop hit, or even a ten pitch out, ANYTHING to get some momentum on your side. In the tight games you find in the playoffs, it’s not the Albert Pujols that wins it for you, it’s the David Freese.
Wigginton has a nice bat with some pop, but he offers more of the same approach at the plate. Just think, would Wigginton have made a difference in game five?
Ruben Amaro said himself that the Phillies need better approaches at the plate, yet he then grabs a player with the same mentality. Rather than expecting the veterans and Charlie Manuel to change their philosophy, it is Ruben’s job to bring in some pieces who already employ that mind set.
A player like Michael Cuddyer would have be a better fit than Wigginton. The fact that Cuddyer’s .277 average over the last two seasons is 32 points higher than Wigginton is a big reason, but he also averaged 13 more walks and 6 less strikeouts over his career than Wigginton. Not that Cuddyer would have been the right move since his asking price is significantly higher and likely too high for the role he would play on the Phils.
The missing piece right now is a Larry Bowa or a David Eckstein, players who had no right playing professional baseball and annoyed the heck out of pitchers when they found their way on base. That perfect piece is out their somewhere. Pat Gillick was masterful and finding that one guy. Let's see if Ruben Amaro can find him this year.
This following chart shows Phillies wins and losses for every single game in 2011. View other Phillies stats, game by game results tables, player stats, and historical stats in the Phillies Stats page. The Phillies Stats page also graphs the Phillies record under Charlie Manuel.

Jonathan Papelbon is coming to Philadelphia. The Phillies signed a proven closer with 219 career saves, to go along with a 2.33 ERA, and two World Championships to his name. The Phillies may have just signed the best closer in baseball.
Then why does it feel like we handed our money to Bernie Madolf?
It would be foolish to label this a bad deal, but I just get the feeling that in four years we will wish it was Ryan Madson coming out of the gate in the ninth.
It’s easy to see why Ruben Amaro prefers Papelbon in red pinstripes. Papelbon is clearly the more accomplished pitcher, having closed for six year in the Boston pressure cooker, while Madson has only held the role of closer for one season. And Papelbon’s career 2.33 ERA is far superior than Madson’s 3.59 ERA.
Papelbon’s accomplishments are nice, but all that really matters here is which pitcher makes the Phillies better. Since Madson struggled in two of his first three seasons and spent one as a starting pitcher, the real comparison begins after Madson found his groove in 2007.
Here are Papelbon's and Madson's numbers over the past five seasons from 2007-2011.
Papelbon vs. Madson last 5 seasons |
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| ERA | G | SV | IP | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB | |
| Jonathan Papelbon | 2.58 | 320 | 184 | 327 | 1.021 | 6.85 | 0.66 | 2.34 | 11.01 | 4.71 |
| Ryan Madson | 3.21 | 310 | 49 | 329.2 | 1.192 | 8.08 | 0.66 | 2.65 | 8.57 | 3.24 |
Over the last five seasons, Papelbon is superior in every important statistical category by a fairly significant margin. Especially considering Papelbon was the closer for all five years, there's no question that Papelbon is the better pitcher during this timeframe.
But when we take just the last three seasons, things get a bit blurrier:
Papelbon vs. Madson last 3 seasons |
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| ERA | G | SV | IP | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB | |
| Jonathan Papelbon | 3.21 | 194 | 106 | 199.1 | 1.119 | 7.27 | 0.68 | 2.8 | 10.79 | 3.85 |
| Ryan Madson | 3.08 | 196 | 47 | 191 | 1.152 | 7.96 | 0.61 | 2.4 | 9.61 | 4 |
In the last three seasons, Papelbon still outshines in most categories, but Madson wins in ERA, HR/9, and BB/9. It’s like choosing between six glazed doughnuts and six jelly doughnuts; you can’t go wrong with either choice.
The problem is that due to two contrasting styles, Papelbon's statistics are more likely to decline than Madson's. Papelbon is similar to Lidge in 2008 with a mid-90's fastball and a hard splitter. As we experienced with Lidge, once the fastball goes, hitters have a much easier time laying off the slider and will find themselves in more hitter's counts.
Madson, on the other hand, also has a mid-90's fastball (slightly below Papelbon) to accompany a great changeup, as well as a cutter. When Madson loses velocity on his fastball, he can still rely on the change in speed of his changeup.
Another difference, as David Murphy pointed out, is that Papelbon is much more of a fly ball pitcher. In the last three seasons, Papelbon's ground ball/fly ball ratio is .52 compared to .95 for Madson. Nearly double the fly ball outs in a bandbox like Citizens Bank Park is a dangerous combination.
But Papelbon is here and that will not change, so second-guessing now is a futile endeavor.
On the bright side, waiting around for Scott Boras to drag his feet with Madson could result in the Phillies losing both pitchers. That is too great a risk at this point, so let's give points to Ruben for pulling the trigger and making a decision. Four years from now, Papelbon might be finished, but we might have a few more championships in the process. When that happens, people might be asking, "Who is Ryan Madson?"
To keep Rollins or not to keep Rollins? What do the Phillies do at shortstop?
Shortstop is one of two huge off season questions for the Phillies, and unfortunately Jim Thome can’t play shortstop. My first thought was to wave goodbye to Jimmy. If I spoke to J-Roll about a month ago, it would have sounded something like this:
“Thanks for your time, Jimmy, but we need to change the attitude on this team and you are the odd man out. Now that you can’t hit, we can say goodbye to that “as Jimmy goes, the team goes” stuff. Besides, I’ve had enough of your slow jogs to first, and unwillingness and inability to produce quality at-bats.”
I quickly changed my mind after glancing at the available free agent shortstops. The pickings are not good from the 8 free agent shortstops outside of Jose Reyes. But first…
Jose Reyes is far and away the best shortstop available and an enormous upgrade over Rollins. But money doesn’t grow on trees quite as quickly as in Yankee-land. Reyes is not just a replacement for Rollins; he would mean a complete change in the Phillies off season strategy. Grabbing Jose Reyes deserves its own discussion altogether and I’m not going to touch it for now, but suffice it to say that I would rather spend my money elsewhere.
Back to Rollins and the other free agent shortstops. I’ll break it down into two simple categories, Defense and Offense.
Here's a look at the fielding percentages (just at shortstop) among the free agents (excluding Reyes).
| Player | 2011 Fielding Pct. | Career Fielding Pct. |
| Jimmy Rollins | .988 | .984 |
| John McDonald | .988 | .988 |
| Alex Gonzalez | .981 | .972 |
| Ronny Cedeno | .978 | .970 |
| Orlando Cabrera | .968 | .975 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | .965 | .970 |
| Rafael Furcal | .964 | .965 |
| Edgar Renteria | .959 | .970 |
If the Phillies part ways with Rollins, they will lose the best fielding shortstop of the free agent crop by far. Rollins was tied for first with John McDonald for the best fielding percentage at .988. And Rollins’ career fielding percentage is 9 points higher than anyone other than McDonald (who can’t hit and only played one year). Rollins isn’t as quick as he used to be, but he still has more range than most of them. By the way, Jimmy's .984 career fielding is better than Jose Reyes has done in any year.
Here are the 2011 offensive numbers for free agent shortstops.
| Player | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Rollins | 142 | 567 | 87 | 152 | 22 | 2 | 16 | 63 | 58 | 59 | 30 | 0.268 | 0.338 | 0.399 | 0.736 |
| McDonald | 84 | 227 | 21 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 12 | 27 | 2 | 0.229 | 0.269 | 0.308 | 0.577 |
| Gonzalez | 149 | 564 | 59 | 136 | 27 | 1 | 15 | 56 | 22 | 126 | 2 | 0.241 | 0.27 | 0.372 | 0.642 |
| Cedeno | 128 | 413 | 43 | 103 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 30 | 93 | 2 | 0.249 | 0.297 | 0.339 | 0.636 |
| Cabrera | 151 | 604 | 87 | 165 | 32 | 3 | 25 | 92 | 44 | 119 | 17 | 0.273 | 0.332 | 0.460 | 0.792 |
| Betancourt | 152 | 556 | 51 | 140 | 27 | 3 | 13 | 68 | 16 | 63 | 4 | 0.252 | 0.271 | 0.381 | 0.652 |
| Furcal | 87 | 333 | 44 | 77 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 28 | 39 | 9 | 0.231 | 0.298 | 0.348 | 0.646 |
| Renteria | 96 | 299 | 34 | 75 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 24 | 65 | 4 | 0.251 | 0.306 | 0.348 | 0.654 |
Now that we've seen the numbers, let's see what options the Phils have other than Rollins. It's not difficult to narrow down most of the competition. We can immediately eliminate John McDonald who is 37 and has a .238 career average and hit .229 last year. Ronny Cedeno is out, as well, with relatively poor numbers across the board.
The Phillies are simply not going to throw any bad gloves behind this starting staff, so that rules out Furcal, Betancourt, and Renteria, who have pedestrian offensive totals anyway.
That leaves us with Gonzalez and Cabrera.
Gonzalez hit 15 homers (1 less than Rollins), his average (.241) was 27 points lower than Rollins, his on-base percentage (.270) was 68 points lower. and his defense is inferior. Sorry Alex, but you are simply not an upgrade.
Cabrera has a solid average (.273) and hit 25 HRs and knocked in 92, but he is slightly lower in on-base percentage with half the steals. Defensively his .975 career fielding percentage and .968 are suspect.
Orlando Cabrera is the only shortstop worth consideration, but he is not the answer. His power is nice, but he doesn't work the count, manufacture hits, or create runs, which is what the Phillies desperately need. And without a solid glove, what purpose would it really serve?
If the Phillies want a new shortstop, they will have to get a little creative. I'll do more digging on this over the off season, but here's one more nugget for you. Check out Wilson Valdez, whose fielding percentage (.971 last year and .980 career) is second only to Jimmy Rollins and compares offensively with everyone else. Would ya?
| Player | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Valdez | 99 | 273 | 39 | 68 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 18 | 41 | 3 | 0.249 | 0.294 | 0.341 | 0.634 |
What can the Phillies do to improve the team in 2012? With $114 million already committed to 10 players, there isn't much wiggle room with the Phillies payroll. Obviously lots of things will change over the next few months, but I'm going to give you a rough idea of what the Phillies can and cannot spend.
Well, let's begin by removing the salaries of the Phillies big free agents (Madson, Rollins, Oswalt, Ibanez, and Lidge). That drops the Phillies team payroll by $46.75 million. Then we add $14.5 million for salary increases to existing player contracts. That gives the Phillies $32.25 million just to maintain the same payroll as 2011.
What can they do with that $32.25 million? There is obviously some tinkering to be done with the bullpen and bench, but the focus of this discussion will simply be free agents.
Even though Madson is a Scott Boras client, the Phillies are going to try hard to keep him with the Phillies. As a legitimate big league closer, Madson stands to make something in the neighborhood of $15 million.
For a few reasons we can get into later articles, I will say that Rollins will not be wearing Phillies pinstripes in 2011.
The Phillies will decline the $16 million option for Oswalt next year and will buy him out for $2 million (which I already included in the payroll total). The Phillies may try to bring Oswalt back, but it won’t be for $16 million.
These two are as good as gone.
If the Phillies pay $15 million to Madson, it leaves them with $17.25 million to replace shortstop, fourth starter, left field, and middle relief. Let’s see what it might cost to fill each position.
John Mayberry earned himself a starting spot in left field in 2012. Before Howard returns, we will probably see Francisco and a combination of bench players in left while Mayberry plays first base. The Phillies may grab a free agent bench guy to cover Howard's absence, but they probably won’t shop for full time left-fielder.
Additional cost: $0
If the Phillies part ways with Jimmy Rollins, Freddy Galvis is the shortstop of the future. But he is probably still one year away, so the Phillies may look to sign someone like a Rafael Furcal or Edgar Renteria.
Additional cost: Around $5 million.
On the flip side, keeping Rollins would cost upwards of $10 million a year.
The Phillies don't have to go shopping to replace Lidge for now, especially if Jose Contreras is healthy next season. Whoever the Phillies do sign probably won't be a big name, anyway.
Additional cost: $0
Remember a guy named Joe Blanton? He is still under contract and definitely a viable 4 or 5 starter. And Vance Worley pitched well enough to take the other spot, so the Phillies really don't need another starter. Kyle Kendrick is also available to start if anyone gets injured. If the Phillies choose to keep Oswalt, it will cost them about $10 million dollars in addition to the $2 million buyout. Obviously this has a huge impact on other moves the Phillies can make.
Additional cost: $0 or $10 million dollars.
Money left if Oswalt returns: $2.5 million
Money left if Oswalt does NOT return: $12.5 million
As you can see, $2.5 million doesn't give the Phillies much to play with, but letting Oswalt walk gives the Phillies quite a bit of flexibility. The Phillies have 5 starters, three three aces, and a decent (albeit young) bullpen, so I think the Phillies should focus their attention elsewhere. Let's just see how it plays out...
Two words, "10 más," written by Carlos Ruiz on the Phillies dry erase board in the clubhouse after their game one victory, fittingly summarized the Phillies failure in 2011. An inspiring message at the time, Ruiz intended to remind his teammates that they were just 10 wins away from their 2nd championship in 4 years.
In reality, it revealed a team seeking the light at the end of the tunnel without noticing the pothole directly in front of them. For the second straight year in the playoffs, the Phillies offensive unit played like an old, "business as usual" group living off past glory.
What happened to the hard nosed, fiery team who ran down the Mets in 2007, disposed of CC Sabathia in the 2008 NLDS, hit two magical home runs off Jonathan Broxton in the NLCS, and didn't let a little rain stop them in the World Series?
What happened to the 2009 team who caught the Mets again, used a "get me to the plate, boys" rally to finish the NLDS, and knocked out Broxton once again in the NLCS?
Those Phillies teams are long gone. What we are left with is a Phillies team who has batted .212, .216, and .226 in the three postseason series since 2009.
The current Phillies squad is simply missing the hunger, energy, and (let's face it) the youth of the 2008 team. The 2011 Phillies expected to win and seemed to just assume they would win as long as they showed up at the office.
It's hard to recognize until it smacks you in face, but the Phillies need a different attitude. Maybe it's time to let Rollins go and move the only tradable piece on the roster in Shane Victorino just to shake things up and recreate that hunger.
This was supposed to be the year where we celebrated the best team in Phillies history and started to throw around a word like dynasty. Unfortunately, 102 wins did provide a World Series trophy. And a World Championship would give the Phillies two in five years which does not exactly garner dynasty status.
2011 was undoubtedly disappointing, but maybe it's the wake-up call they needed. We still have Halladay for at least another year and Lee and Hamels should be with us for several years. That's reason enough to have optimism for more great years ahead.
But, first things first. Let's get "un más" in 2012.
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