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Chase Utley is a natural lefty
by Scott Butler 1/23/12

Chase Utley has been hiding a deep, dark secret for nearly his entire life, a baseball disability no one could ever know. Chase Utley's secret? He is left-handed.

It’s articles like these that separate bloggers from real journalists. Thing is, I have absolutely no evidence to back up my claim. I searched far and wide and came up blank. In fact, one story shows that Utley would probably be batting right-handed today if it wasn’t for his dad’s laziness.

But hear me out…there is still good reason to believe that Chase Utley is naturally left-handed.

Proof (OK, just guesses) why Chase Utley is a lefty

Just look at the way Utley throws. It’s weird, right? There is no reason why a man with such physical gifts should be such an awkward thrower. I contend that it makes more sense that Utley is so physically gifted, he’s able to look fairly normal throwing with the wrong hand. Try it sometime and you'll know what I mean.

It also takes Utley way too long to release the ball to first on a routine play and he double pumps on nearly every grounder. Chase doesn’t look like the kind of guy who is willing to take any play for granted like that. So why does he do it? Because he needs to send a signal to his brain before he can throw. Throwing should require no conscience thought whatsoever, but Chase needs to remind his brain if he wants his arm to cooperate.

Then the 2009 World Series exposed him for what he really is. Chase hid his illness quite skillfully during his career, but World Series pressure finally exacerbated the issue. In pressure situations, the best therapy is generally to rely on your natural ability and instincts. Unfortunately, Utley’s instincts told him to use the other hand!

The question begs to be asked: why didn’t Chase throw left-handed to begin with? Glad you asked.

Why does Utley throw right-handed?

A hard nosed, intense player like Utley wants to be in the middle of the action as much as possible, meaning he has three choices: catcher, shortstop, or second base. My guess is that his speed eliminated catching, so he was left with shortstop and second. Problem is, lefties can’t play middle infield because they need to pivot in order to throw to first and it takes too long.

So Utley had to fake it.

He obviously tried shortstop, the quarterback of the defense, first. Surprisingly enough, that lasted all the way through high school. But Utley was such a tremendous athlete, he made it work and he’s been fooling people ever since. Well, you don’t fool me, Chase.

I would bet if you followed Chase around you would see him write, draw, paint, and eat with his left hand. He probably even, ehem, wipes with his left hand. He can keep knowledge of that last one to himself.

What can Phillies expect from Vance Worley in 2012?
by Scott Butler 1/19/12

Vance Worley’s emergence on the MLB scene was easily one of the nicest surprises for the 2011 Phillies. But what kind of story will unfold for Worley in 2012? Worley went from mediocre minor leaguer to dominant major leaguer overnight, going 7-1 with a 2.02 ERA in his first 11 starts with the Phillies. Then he came back to Earth and finished with a 4.17 ERA in his final 12 games (2 in relief). So which character will Vance Worley play in 2012? Jekyll or Hyde?

A tale of two halves for Vance Worley

In comparing Worley's first eleven games with his last twelve, even while his ERA was skyrocketing, in many ways Worley was improving.

His control numbers are one area that improved. Worley threw 63.6% of his pitches for strikes in his first 11 games and 65.2% in his last 12. His walks/9 decreased from 3.41 to 2.83, while his strikeouts per game rose from 6.69 to 9.85. That difference improved his strikeout to walk ratio from 2:1 (1.96) to nearly 4:1 (3.47).

If Worley was around the plate more, it stands to reason that hitters made more contact. But that was not the case. His contact percentage against went from 87.2% to 87.1% and their swing and miss percentage only changed from 43.1% to 41.6%.

Reasons for Worley's inflated ERA

If his strikeouts increased, walks decreased, and batters were making contact just as much, what caused his ERA to double?

One reason is a spike in his home run rate. Worley's home run/fly ball rate during his hot stretch was 2.6%, which is less than 3 home runs per 100 fly balls and way below the MLB average of 9.6%. Maybe Worley was effective at putting hitters off-balance to keep the ball in the yard, but it is impossible to maintain such an obscenely low rate.

A few percentage points makes a significant difference. If Worley had equaled the MLB average, he would have tossed 8 more home run balls. If each homer scored 1.5 runs, that equals 12 more runs and his ERA would have increased to 3.54.

Secondly, as Corey Seidman pointed out, Worley's line drive percentage increased by 16 percentage points. Line drives result in hits 73% of the time versus 23% for grounders, which might explain why his batting average against rose from .199 to .278. More line drives indicate players were seeing the ball better. Worley might have thrown the same amount of strikes, but hitters were making better contact on the balls they hit.

The luck factor

It is also quite possible that more homers, more line drives, and a higher ERA is more of a factor of luck than anything else. Three stats and some sabermetrics help account for the luck factor.

LOB (Left On Base)%
Worley's LOB was 79.9% in the first half and 76.2% in the second half, both just slightly higher than the MLB average of 72.5%. Worley's high LOB demonstrates his mental toughness and ability to handle adverse situations. It’s also good to see a reasonable number here, because too many weird things happen in the game of baseball to expect any pitcher to maintain an abnormally high rate.

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play)
BABIP is just what it sounds like, the opponents batting average on balls hit between the white lines. For the game of inches that baseball is, anything drastic on either side should raise a red flag. Worley's BABIP went from .268 in his first 11 to .304 in his last 12. Both are within the range of the MLB average of .291 and it shows how his fortune may have changed throughout the year.

FIP (Fielding Indeterminate Pitching)
FIP is supposed to be the ultimate non-luck stat, determining what a pitcher's ERA would be in a luck-neutral environment by excluding defense and game situations. It theoretically tells you what a pitcher’s ERA should be. Worley's FIP in his first 11 games was 3.36 and his late FIP was 3.29.

Vance Worley's FIP seems to validate the rest of his numbers. We saw that even though his ERA skyrocketed, batters weren’t behaving much differently at the plate and Worley was walking less and striking out more. His FIP reflected that, suggesting that he was much more consistent than his ERA indicated. At the end of the day, Worley's fortune evened out over the entire season and his overall ERA of 3.01 was close to his FIP of 3.32.

What does this all mean for Worley in 2012?

Worley maintained a consistent approach of throwing strikes and trusting the defense behind him. As much as we might be inclined to focus on his ballooning ERA and assume hitters figured him out, most of the stats don't endorse that idea. There is no reason to expect Vance Worley can't replicate his performance on the mound next season. If he brings the same game next season, we should see an ERA around 3.50.

However...

If Worley wants to remain in the big leagues, he needs another pitch. Worley caught batters looking on his two-seamer that ran back across the plate for called third strikes, but he didn't induce many whiffs for strike three. In order to survive, Worley must find a put away pitch. He needs a pitch with some bite like a slider or something that can fool them like a nasty curve or a changeup.

Hitters will adjust to Worley. Now he needs to adjust to them.

Remembering Ryan Madson
by Scott Butler 1/13/12

Ryan Madson did not die as the title may suggest, and no it isn’t time to go into baseball mourning, but Phillies fans lost a piece of themselves when Madson agreed to terms with the Reds. Madson landing somewhere else was an inevitability once the Phillies signed Papelbon, but it still hurts a little to see him go. After a successful career spent entirely in a Phillies uniform, Madson deserves a proper sendoff. So, here’s a recap of Ryan Madson’s career in Philadelphia.

Ryan Madson’s Phillies career

Born and raised in southern California, Madson was drafted out of high school by the Phillies in the 9th round of the 1998 MLB draft. A starter throughout his minor league career, Madson got his chance in the big leagues in 2004 as a reliever.

Madson had a terrific rookie campaign in which he posted a 2.34 ERA in 52 games, but he followed up with a less than stellar 4.14 ERA in 2005. Madson returned to his familiar role as a starter to begin the 2006 season, but after a 6.28 ERA in 17 starts the Phillies realized it was a failed experiment. So, back to the pen he went. Madson excelled as a reliever with a 3.01 ERA as the Phillies’ setup man from 2007-2010.

Madson was a central piece of the Phillies bullpen and a huge part of the Phillies 2008 World Series title. During the 2008 playoffs, Madson posted a 2.21 ERA in 11 games and found some extra juice in his fastball, hitting as much as 97mph on the radar gun.

By 2009, Madson developed into one of the game’s top setup men, but as good as he was in the eighth inning, he was equally as poor in the ninth. Charlie Manuel gave Madson plenty of chances to close in 2009 and 2010, but for whatever reason Madson did not hack it as a closer. To make matters worse, Ryan missed ten weeks in 2010 with a broken toe after he kicked a chair following a blown save in San Francisco.

The Phillies had so little faith in Madson to finish games, they picked Jose Contreras over Madson as the Phillies closer entering the 2011 season. But a season ending injury to Contreras gave Madson one last chance. He did not disappoint this time around, converting 32 of 34 saves and finishing with a 2.34 ERA.

The end of the Madson era

Who knows exactly what went down during the negotiations between the Phillies, Madson, and Scott Boras, but another Phillies contract was not in the books. The Phillies signed Jonathan Papelbon to a four year contract and Madson eventually settled for a one year contract with the Reds.

Madson finished his Phillies career with a 47-30 record, 3.59 ERA, and 52 saves. When all is said and done, Madson is the team's all-time leader in relief appearances (473) and 3rd in games pitched (491). As Matt Gelb pointed out, only two guys named Robin Roberts and Steve Carlton ever stood on the mound more times as a Phillie than Madson.

Phillies look alikes
by Scott Butler 1/8/12

This is a boring time if you are a Phillies fan, so I thought it might be fun to play around with Phillies look alikes. Anyone from the Phillies organization is a possible target in the Phillies look alike game, but I left out any obviously embarrassing ones since this is just for fun.

Well, here are your

PHILLIES LOOK ALIKES

Placido Polanco - Enrico Colantoni

I don’t know why, but this one is hilarious.

Ben Francisco – Carlton Banks

He may not be on the Phils anymore, but I couldn’t pass this up. Play some Tom Jones for Benny Fresh and see if he can dance as well as Carlton.

Chase Utley – Mike Richards

Talking about brothers, how about long lost brothers? Listen to their postgame comments and tell me they aren't related.

Jimmy Rollins - Sylvester Stalone

Is it just me or do these guys have the same jaws?

Roy Halladay – Chris Carpenter

Did you hear how Halladay saved a boy from an anaconda on his fishing trip with Chris Carpenter? Save one life, drown Chris Carpenter. Seems like a fair trade to me.

Cole Hamels - White Collar guy

Especially with a nickname like Hollywood Hamels, Cole is a dead ringer for Neal on White Collar.

Carlos Ruiz - Phil Collins

Oh, this isn’t the Phillies weirdest song intro? How in the heck did Ruiz get stuck with “In the Air Tonight” anyway? I would bet my mortgage Ruiz has never listened to a Phil Collins song in his life.

Larry Anderson - Buffalo Bill from Silence of the Lambs

If you run into Larry, ask him to say, “It puts the lotion on its skin or else it gets the hose again.”

Jim Jackson – Ned Flanders

Okaley Dokely!

Ryan Howard - Corey Howard

Couldn’t find anyone for Ryan, so here is a picture of his fraternal twin brother Corey

Antonio Bastardo - Deshawn Jackson

The look alike, both make less than a mil, and neither wants to come across the middle.

Roy Oswalt - Doogie Howser

Roy Oswalt is really a doctor, but he plays a ballplayer on TV.

Charlie Manuel – Santa Claus

I don’t mean this as a joke because I love Charlie. He has the white hair, he’s jolly, and I bet he would kill as a mall Santa.

Bill Giles – Dave Thomas

Mmmm...Wendy’s

Have any good Phillies look-alikes of your own? Just click Contact Us and drop me a line.

What the heck happened to Dontrelle Willis?
by Scott Butler 12/27/11

Dontrelle Willis has officially signed with the Phillies. Had this news come prior to the 2006 season, adding Willis would have been huge news. Dontrelle had just finished his third season with a 22-10 record and a 2.68 ERA with the Florida Marlins. At the age of just 23, Willis had a career 3.27 ERA and was well on his way to becoming an elite starting pitcher. His funky delivery, electric personality, and ability to swing the bat made Dontrelle Willis one of the main faces of Major League Baseball.

Fast forward to 2012...

In the six years since his peak in 2005, Dontrelle Willis has a 26-39 record and a 5.01 ERA. Those numbers led to Dontrelle signing a one year contract for less than a million dollars...as no more than a lefty specialist. So, I ask the question again...

What happened to Dontrelle Willis?

In a case like Dontrelle Willis where a player drops so hard, so fast, it is almost always an issue with velocity or command. My first inclination is to look for a decrease in velocity and it does appear his velocity dropped a little. Reliable velocity charts only date back to around 2008, so it's hard to say exactly how much his speed declined, but the reports I read show that his fastball averaged 92-93 mph until 2005 and dropped to 89-90 mph as of 2008 and has held steady since. Three mph is a fairly significant drop, but probably not enough to explain a collapse of this magnitude.

Willis lost control and can't command

At the face of it, Dontrelle Willis just lost control and command of his pitches. The stats point this out very clearly. Willis went from 2.63 walks per nine innings in his first three seasons to 4.67 in the 6 seasons since. That's nearly twice as many walks. More walks means Willis is behind in the count much more often and it also suggests that he is throwing less quality strikes. Just imagine if Roy Halladay doubled his walks.

A slight drop in velocity and a higher walk rate explains why Dontrelle Willis is so much worse, but the main culprit of how it happened comes down to mechanics.

It's all mechanical with Dontrelle Willis

As "The Hardball Times" pointed out in 2007, changes to Dontrelle's mechanics explains it all. It shouldn't come as a huge surprise that Willis would eventually run into mechanical issues with such a funky delivery. With so many moving parts in his delivery, one small issue can cause a domino effect. Poor mechanics leads to decreased velocity, difficulty commanding pitches, and eventually mental issues. It's all pretty simple.

It's probably too late to expect the old Dontrelle Willis to miraculously take the mound in a Phillies uniform, but maybe a move to the bullpen will take some pressure off. This is a classic Pat Gillick move and there's no doubt he played a part in the decision. Who knows, maybe Gillick can pull another genie out of a bottle.

Just how much money does Albert Pujols make?
by Scott Butler 12/13/11

I’m still having a hard time wrapping my head around the contract Albert Pujols just signed. 254 million dollars is a lot of money. Pujols’ contract is like the size of the universe: just too big for the human brain to comprehend. So let me break it down for you in smaller pieces to illustrate just how stinkin rich King Albert has become.

Breaking down Albert Pujols' salary

Pujols is due to make an average of $25.4 million each year, which breaks down as follows:

Pujols salary...

per calendar day - $69,589.04
      per hour - $2,899.54
      per minute - $48.32
      per second - $0.80
per regular season game - $156,790
per plate appearance (average of 676 PA per season) - $37,573.96
per pitch (average of 2,467 pitches per year) - $10,295.91

Think about those values for a second. Pujols earns in a single day what a normal everyday worker makes in an entire year. Pujols will earn nearly 100 bucks every two minutes and $1 million every single week.

Now let’s imagine Pujols got paid per pitch. That means he would earn $10,000 for every foul tip, for every strikeout, for every called strike, and for every pitch in the dirt. He would earn $40,000 for each intentional walk and at least $60,000 for every full count.

If you aren’t depressed yet, chew on this: Pujols probably makes more during a healthy dump than you make in an entire day.

Jimmy Rollins may be the best option
by Scott Butler 12/7/11

Ahhh, what to do with Jimmy Rollins? If you decide to let Rollins go, you are replacing the face of your organization, your leadoff hitter, your former MVP, your team “captain," your quarterback on defense, and the one player who was here when we stunk and when we won it all. Of course J-Roll’s absence in 2012 won’t have the same impact as if it had taken place in 2009, but removing your shortstop and franchise player is no small decision.

Here is the Phillies shortstop conundrum:

Their shortstop of the future is Freddy Galvis, but offensively he is probably a year away from being ready for the majors. With few quality position players waiting in the minors, Galvis represents the Phillies best option to go younger and cheaper.

But J-Roll wants three to five years. We’ve already seen a noticeable offensive decline by Jimmy, and who knows how good he will be when he is 35 in the last year of his contract. Jimmy was the unquestioned leader in the clubhouse in his prime years and when Jimmy talked the talk, he walked the walk. But his approach had a lot to be desired, he was stubborn to make any changes, and routinely didn’t hustle to first. That was fine and dandy when he still produced, but when that production wanes, Jimmy could become a hindrance in the locker room very quickly.

The obvious solution is to find a solid, veteran shortstop for one year before handing the reigns to Galvis in 2013. Unfortunately, I pointed out recently that the Phillies won’t find much in the free agent market. Unless the Phillies are happy with Jerry Hairston at shortstop, they need to find their answer through a trade.

So who could the Phillies get through a trade at shortstop?

You might be surprised at how few quality shortstops exist. There isn’t much outside of the superstar shortstops like Reyes and Tulowitzki (and let me break it to you, they aren’t going anywhere after signing their huge contracts). Hanley Ramirez may be an option for some team now that Reyes stole his position at short, but the Phillies don’t have the pieces to trade for him. And you can forget about Derek Jeter. Even if the Yankees would consider moving Jeter, his contract is way too big for what he offers and he is signed through at least 2013.

Some of the remaining names are nothing more than recognizable: Jason Bartlett, JJ Hardy, Ian Desmond, Jamey Carroll, and Emilio Bonifacio. These players are either defensive liabilities, bad hitters, or just overall a downgrade compared to Rollins.

That's why it was exciting to hear the name of Aramis Ramirez being thrown around. If the Phillies insert Ramirez at third in place of Polanco, it more than replaces Jimmy's offense and allows the Phillies to either acquire a veteran glove for a year or take their chances on Galvis at third. I'm hearing even as I write this that the Phils are close to a deal with Rollins, so that might be a fleeting dream.

Let's put it this way: Jimmy Rollins is the best shortstop available. Period. Unless Ruben Amaro has something up his sleeve, the Phillies are stuck with Rollins.

Searching for more options for Phillies at shortstop
by Scott Butler 12/3/11

Replacing Jimmy Rollins might be a refreshing change to rejuvenate the Phillies roster. But as I mentioned earlier, there are not many good free agent shortstops from which to replace J-Roll. My first list was limited to free agents listed as shortstops in 2011, so I scanned the remaining free agents for players with some previous experience at shortstop. Here are a list of other possible options at shortstop:

Jerry Hairston, Jr.

Jerry Hairston is an attractive “super utility” player, having played at least 80 games at each outfield position, shortstop, second, and third. Offensively, Hairston was extremely close to Rollins last season. Outside of their speed (Rollins had 27 more steals than Hairston), they are nearly identical. See how Hairston compares to Rollins in 2011 in many of the key categories:

Defensively, Hairston has been fine, posting a .974 career fielding percentage at shortstop, although he has only played 146 games at shortstop over his 7 year career. If the Phillies are confident Hairston can hold his own defensively at shortstop over a whole season, they may not lose much offensively. The other perk: Hairston made only $2 million last year and has signed one year contracts in the past. Jimmy will be looking for $8-10 million and at least three years.

Don't bet on Hairston, though. Hairston has not played much shortstop and has been essentially a bench player for a reason. As intriguing as it sounds, there's no way Ruben Amaro will replace his team "captain" for a utility player.

Nick Punto

If Nick Punto can reproduce his 2011 offensive numbers, he would be a fantastic fit for the Phils. Punto hit .278 with a .388 on-base percentage in 63 games with the Cardinals last season. Punto's OBP is 110 points higher than his batting average, which is significant considering the average differential between batting average and OBS is 66 points. Better yet, his differential is 98 points over the last three seasons. What that means is that Punto knows how to find a way on base, and the Phillies desperately need that type of player on their roster.

The Phillies cannot bank on Punto replicating his 2011 figures since he only hit .248 over the last three seasons. The obvious other question is his defense. Punto has a .974 fielding percentage in 265 career games at shortstop, but, as with Hairston, it remains to be seen if Punto can play consistently over an entire season. The Phillies may try to grab Punto and he only made $750,000 last year, but I wouldn't expect to see him replacing Jimmy Rollins.

Ramon Santiago

Ramon Santiago has played 438 games at shortstop over his career (27 in 2011) with a career .976 fielding percentage. But Santiago is a downgrade over Rollins offensively, with a .260 average, 5 HR, and 30 RBIs last season with the Tigers. Santiago also had a low on-base percentage (.311), struck out over twice as much as he walked, and had no steals. Vote no on Santiago.

The Verdict

Hairston and Punto are nice players and would come a lot cheaper than Rollins, but they aren't the kind of guys that a World Series contender with cash to spend is likely to trust as their starting shortstops. It looks more and more likely that Ruben Amaro will have to bite the bullet and sign Rollins to a three or four year deal (nobody is gonna give him 5 years) for more money than he wants to spend. Unless he can make a trade, we are probably going to see Rollins in a Phillies uniform for a few more years.

Wigginton is good move only if...
by Scott Butler 11/26/11

Trading for Ty Wigginton is a good “only if” move. Wigginton is a good trade by Ruben Amaro “only if” it is not his final bench move. The Phillies needed a utility man who could play third, first, and maybe outfield, and Wigginton fits the bill. His .245 average over the last two seasons won’t wow you, but he averaged 18.5 homers over that span. Since Wigginton is probably replacing either Valdez or Martinez, it is a serious upgrade offensively. Wigginton carries a $2 million price tag, which is not a lot in general, but it is pricey for a bench player.

But adding Ty Wigginton does not address the main problem which was exposed in Game 5 of the NLDS: the Phillies need more grinders. When the Phillies stared down Chris Carpenter, who was clearly on his game, they needed a fire-starter, someone who could get into Carpenter’s head. A bunt single, a bloop hit, or even a ten pitch out, ANYTHING to get some momentum on your side. In the tight games you find in the playoffs, it’s not the Albert Pujols that wins it for you, it’s the David Freese.

Wigginton has a nice bat with some pop, but he offers more of the same approach at the plate. Just think, would Wigginton have made a difference in game five?

Ruben Amaro said himself that the Phillies need better approaches at the plate, yet he then grabs a player with the same mentality. Rather than expecting the veterans and Charlie Manuel to change their philosophy, it is Ruben’s job to bring in some pieces who already employ that mind set.

A player like Michael Cuddyer would have be a better fit than Wigginton. The fact that Cuddyer’s .277 average over the last two seasons is 32 points higher than Wigginton is a big reason, but he also averaged 13 more walks and 6 less strikeouts over his career than Wigginton. Not that Cuddyer would have been the right move since his asking price is significantly higher and likely too high for the role he would play on the Phils.

The missing piece right now is a Larry Bowa or a David Eckstein, players who had no right playing professional baseball and annoyed the heck out of pitchers when they found their way on base. That perfect piece is out their somewhere. Pat Gillick was masterful and finding that one guy. Let's see if Ruben Amaro can find him this year.

2011 Phillies Win/Loss Chart

This following chart shows Phillies wins and losses for every single game in 2011. View other Phillies stats, game by game results tables, player stats, and historical stats in the Phillies Stats page. The Phillies Stats page also graphs the Phillies record under Charlie Manuel.

Papelbon over Madson not the right move
by Scott Butler 11/15/11

Jonathan Papelbon is coming to Philadelphia. The Phillies signed a proven closer with 219 career saves, to go along with a 2.33 ERA, and two World Championships to his name. The Phillies may have just signed the best closer in baseball.

Then why does it feel like we handed our money to Bernie Madolf?

It would be foolish to label this a bad deal, but I just get the feeling that in four years we will wish it was Ryan Madson coming out of the gate in the ninth.

It’s easy to see why Ruben Amaro prefers Papelbon in red pinstripes. Papelbon is clearly the more accomplished pitcher, having closed for six year in the Boston pressure cooker, while Madson has only held the role of closer for one season. And Papelbon’s career 2.33 ERA is far superior than Madson’s 3.59 ERA.

Papelbon’s accomplishments are nice, but all that really matters here is which pitcher makes the Phillies better. Since Madson struggled in two of his first three seasons and spent one as a starting pitcher, the real comparison begins after Madson found his groove in 2007.

How does Papelbon compare to Madson?

Here are Papelbon's and Madson's numbers over the past five seasons from 2007-2011.

Over the last five seasons, Papelbon is superior in every important statistical category by a fairly significant margin. Especially considering Papelbon was the closer for all five years, there's no question that Papelbon is the better pitcher during this timeframe.

But when we take just the last three seasons, things get a bit blurrier:

In the last three seasons, Papelbon still outshines in most categories, but Madson wins in ERA, HR/9, and BB/9. It’s like choosing between six glazed doughnuts and six jelly doughnuts; you can’t go wrong with either choice.

The problem is that due to two contrasting styles, Papelbon's statistics are more likely to decline than Madson's. Papelbon is similar to Lidge in 2008 with a mid-90's fastball and a hard splitter. As we experienced with Lidge, once the fastball goes, hitters have a much easier time laying off the slider and will find themselves in more hitter's counts.

Madson, on the other hand, also has a mid-90's fastball (slightly below Papelbon) to accompany a great changeup, as well as a cutter. When Madson loses velocity on his fastball, he can still rely on the change in speed of his changeup.

Another difference, as David Murphy pointed out, is that Papelbon is much more of a fly ball pitcher. In the last three seasons, Papelbon's ground ball/fly ball ratio is .52 compared to .95 for Madson. Nearly double the fly ball outs in a bandbox like Citizens Bank Park is a dangerous combination.

But Papelbon is here and that will not change, so second-guessing now is a futile endeavor.

On the bright side, waiting around for Scott Boras to drag his feet with Madson could result in the Phillies losing both pitchers. That is too great a risk at this point, so let's give points to Ruben for pulling the trigger and making a decision. Four years from now, Papelbon might be finished, but we might have a few more championships in the process. When that happens, people might be asking, "Who is Ryan Madson?"

Replacing Rollins? Phillies better not look at free agent shortstops
by Scott Butler 11/10/11

To keep Rollins or not to keep Rollins? What do the Phillies do at shortstop?

Shortstop is one of two huge off season questions for the Phillies, and unfortunately Jim Thome can’t play shortstop. My first thought was to wave goodbye to Jimmy. If I spoke to J-Roll about a month ago, it would have sounded something like this:

“Thanks for your time, Jimmy, but we need to change the attitude on this team and you are the odd man out. Now that you can’t hit, we can say goodbye to that “as Jimmy goes, the team goes” stuff. Besides, I’ve had enough of your slow jogs to first, and unwillingness and inability to produce quality at-bats.”

I quickly changed my mind after glancing at the available free agent shortstops. The pickings are not good from the 8 free agent shortstops outside of Jose Reyes. But first…

…forget about Jose Reyes

Jose Reyes is far and away the best shortstop available and an enormous upgrade over Rollins. But money doesn’t grow on trees quite as quickly as in Yankee-land. Reyes is not just a replacement for Rollins; he would mean a complete change in the Phillies off season strategy. Grabbing Jose Reyes deserves its own discussion altogether and I’m not going to touch it for now, but suffice it to say that I would rather spend my money elsewhere.

Back to Rollins and the other free agent shortstops. I’ll break it down into two simple categories, Defense and Offense.

Free Agent Shortstop Defense

Here's a look at the fielding percentages (just at shortstop) among the free agents (excluding Reyes).

If the Phillies part ways with Rollins, they will lose the best fielding shortstop of the free agent crop by far. Rollins was tied for first with John McDonald for the best fielding percentage at .988. And Rollins’ career fielding percentage is 9 points higher than anyone other than McDonald (who can’t hit and only played one year). Rollins isn’t as quick as he used to be, but he still has more range than most of them. By the way, Jimmy's .984 career fielding is better than Jose Reyes has done in any year.

Free Agent Shortstop Offense

Here are the 2011 offensive numbers for free agent shortstops.

Are there any good free agent options at shortstop?

Now that we've seen the numbers, let's see what options the Phils have other than Rollins. It's not difficult to narrow down most of the competition. We can immediately eliminate John McDonald who is 37 and has a .238 career average and hit .229 last year. Ronny Cedeno is out, as well, with relatively poor numbers across the board.

The Phillies are simply not going to throw any bad gloves behind this starting staff, so that rules out Furcal, Betancourt, and Renteria, who have pedestrian offensive totals anyway.

That leaves us with Gonzalez and Cabrera.

Gonzalez hit 15 homers (1 less than Rollins), his average (.241) was 27 points lower than Rollins, his on-base percentage (.270) was 68 points lower. and his defense is inferior. Sorry Alex, but you are simply not an upgrade.

Cabrera has a solid average (.273) and hit 25 HRs and knocked in 92, but he is slightly lower in on-base percentage with half the steals. Defensively his .975 career fielding percentage and .968 are suspect.

Conclusion

Orlando Cabrera is the only shortstop worth consideration, but he is not the answer. His power is nice, but he doesn't work the count, manufacture hits, or create runs, which is what the Phillies desperately need. And without a solid glove, what purpose would it really serve?

If the Phillies want a new shortstop, they will have to get a little creative. I'll do more digging on this over the off season, but here's one more nugget for you. Check out Wilson Valdez, whose fielding percentage (.971 last year and .980 career) is second only to Jimmy Rollins and compares offensively with everyone else. Would ya?

Phillies free agent and payroll options in 2012
by Scott Butler 10/15/11

What can the Phillies do to improve the team in 2012? With $114 million already committed to 10 players, there isn't much wiggle room with the Phillies payroll. Obviously lots of things will change over the next few months, but I'm going to give you a rough idea of what the Phillies can and cannot spend.

So how much wiggle room is there with the Phillies payroll?

Well, let's begin by removing the salaries of the Phillies big free agents (Madson, Rollins, Oswalt, Ibanez, and Lidge). That drops the Phillies team payroll by $46.75 million. Then we add $14.5 million for salary increases to existing player contracts. That gives the Phillies $32.25 million just to maintain the same payroll as 2011.

What can they do with that $32.25 million? There is obviously some tinkering to be done with the bullpen and bench, but the focus of this discussion will simply be free agents.

Phillies free agents

Ryan Madson:

Even though Madson is a Scott Boras client, the Phillies are going to try hard to keep him with the Phillies. As a legitimate big league closer, Madson stands to make something in the neighborhood of $15 million.

Jimmy Rollins:

For a few reasons we can get into later articles, I will say that Rollins will not be wearing Phillies pinstripes in 2011.

Roy Oswalt:

The Phillies will decline the $16 million option for Oswalt next year and will buy him out for $2 million (which I already included in the payroll total). The Phillies may try to bring Oswalt back, but it won’t be for $16 million.

Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge:

These two are as good as gone.

What's left?

If the Phillies pay $15 million to Madson, it leaves them with $17.25 million to replace shortstop, fourth starter, left field, and middle relief. Let’s see what it might cost to fill each position.

Replacing Phillies free agents

Left field:

John Mayberry earned himself a starting spot in left field in 2012. Before Howard returns, we will probably see Francisco and a combination of bench players in left while Mayberry plays first base. The Phillies may grab a free agent bench guy to cover Howard's absence, but they probably won’t shop for full time left-fielder.
Additional cost: $0

Shortstop:

If the Phillies part ways with Jimmy Rollins, Freddy Galvis is the shortstop of the future. But he is probably still one year away, so the Phillies may look to sign someone like a Rafael Furcal or Edgar Renteria.
Additional cost: Around $5 million. On the flip side, keeping Rollins would cost upwards of $10 million a year.

Middle Reliever:

The Phillies don't have to go shopping to replace Lidge for now, especially if Jose Contreras is healthy next season. Whoever the Phillies do sign probably won't be a big name, anyway.
Additional cost: $0

#4 starter:

Remember a guy named Joe Blanton? He is still under contract and definitely a viable 4 or 5 starter. And Vance Worley pitched well enough to take the other spot, so the Phillies really don't need another starter. Kyle Kendrick is also available to start if anyone gets injured. If the Phillies choose to keep Oswalt, it will cost them about $10 million dollars in addition to the $2 million buyout. Obviously this has a huge impact on other moves the Phillies can make.
Additional cost: $0 or $10 million dollars.

The bottom line

Money left if Oswalt returns: $2.5 million

Money left if Oswalt does NOT return: $12.5 million

As you can see, $2.5 million doesn't give the Phillies much to play with, but letting Oswalt walk gives the Phillies quite a bit of flexibility. The Phillies have 5 starters, three three aces, and a decent (albeit young) bullpen, so I think the Phillies should focus their attention elsewhere. Let's just see how it plays out...

Phillies no más
by Scott Butler 10/9/11

Two words, "10 más," written by Carlos Ruiz on the Phillies dry erase board in the clubhouse after their game one victory, fittingly summarized the Phillies failure in 2011. An inspiring message at the time, Ruiz intended to remind his teammates that they were just 10 wins away from their 2nd championship in 4 years.

In reality, it revealed a team seeking the light at the end of the tunnel without noticing the pothole directly in front of them. For the second straight year in the playoffs, the Phillies offensive unit played like an old, "business as usual" group living off past glory.

What happened to the hard nosed, fiery team who ran down the Mets in 2007, disposed of CC Sabathia in the 2008 NLDS, hit two magical home runs off Jonathan Broxton in the NLCS, and didn't let a little rain stop them in the World Series?

What happened to the 2009 team who caught the Mets again, used a "get me to the plate, boys" rally to finish the NLDS, and knocked out Broxton once again in the NLCS?

Those Phillies teams are long gone. What we are left with is a Phillies team who has batted .212, .216, and .226 in the three postseason series since 2009.

The current Phillies squad is simply missing the hunger, energy, and (let's face it) the youth of the 2008 team. The 2011 Phillies expected to win and seemed to just assume they would win as long as they showed up at the office.

It's hard to recognize until it smacks you in face, but the Phillies need a different attitude. Maybe it's time to let Rollins go and move the only tradable piece on the roster in Shane Victorino just to shake things up and recreate that hunger.

This was supposed to be the year where we celebrated the best team in Phillies history and started to throw around a word like dynasty. Unfortunately, 102 wins did provide a World Series trophy. And a World Championship would give the Phillies two in five years which does not exactly garner dynasty status.

2011 was undoubtedly disappointing, but maybe it's the wake-up call they needed. We still have Halladay for at least another year and Lee and Hamels should be with us for several years. That's reason enough to have optimism for more great years ahead.

But, first things first. Let's get "un más" in 2012.

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