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Phillies Minor League Team Info 
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Time to move Rollins down in the lineup
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Phillies 2012 vs. career slugging and OPS |
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| Player | 2012 Slugging % | 2012 OPS | Career Slugging % | Career OPS |
| Laynce Nix | .625 | 1.054 | .433 | .723 |
| Carlos Ruiz | .525 | .858 | .396 | .752 |
| Ty Wigginton | .500 | .879 | .444 | .769 |
| Shane Victorino | .410 | .702 | .437 | .781 |
| Hunter Pence | .405 | .703 | .483 | .825 |
| Placido Polanco | .269 | .560 | .405 | .751 |
| Jimmy Rollins | .256 | .509 | .430 | .759 |
| John Mayberry | .255 | .468 | .486 | .801 |
| Jim Thome | .111 | .349 | .555 | .958 |
You can see that two of the new guys (Nix and Wigginton) are providing some power, but Carlos Ruiz is the only other regular who can stake that claim. Victorino and Pence aren't too far off their career totals, but Polanco and Rollins are quite a bit below what we should expect and Mayberry and Thome aren't in the same hemisphere.
As strange as it might sound, absent power from Rollins and Polanco might have the biggest impact on the offense. Obviously the Phillies aren't counting on many home runs from either player, but we do expect power in the form of doubles and triples which neither has provided. In a lineup assembled with no true power hitters, the need for extra base hits becomes that much more apparent.
It goes without saying that John Mayberry and Jim Thome have been huge disappointments. The Phillies hoped Mayberry could play the role of a pseudo Ryan Howard. If Maybuggles (as I like to call him) was able to provide anywhere near his .513 slugging percentage of last season, it would allow the entire rest of the lineup to fit in more natural roles and play with less pressure. Jim Thome, well, I think his stats speak for themselves.
Nix and Wigginton, on the other hand, have been just what the doctor ordered. Their contributions have helped keep the Phillies' heads above water, or technically just below water, but you get the point. Their thirteen RBIs comprise nineteen percent of the entire team total.
Nix and Wigginton are great examples of what it takes to win as a team. When some guys are struggling, other guys need to step up. Ruben Amaro brought them in as role players; so far they are playing the roles of heavy lifters.
Despite the Phils' weak hitting, their dominant starting pitching has kept them hovering around .500. With hitting season right around the corner, we just might see more extra base hits and a lot more Phillies wins.
Don't worry about the Nationals
The Washington Nationals are 14-4 and the Phillies are 9-10. Calm down, now. Quit eyeing the Ben Franklin bridge for a good jumping point just yet.
There’s really no need to keep a watchful eye on the Nationals at this point, because statistically speaking their record is irrelevant. The Nationals are on pace for a 126 win season, which would be the best record in the history of Major League Baseball. 126 wins is ten more than any other team in MLB history (116 by Seattle in 2001) and their .778 winning percentage is 16 points higher than (and roughly 3 games ahead of) the next best (.762) recorded by the Cubs in 1906.
Trust me, the Nats will not finish with 126 wins or anything close to that number. So, the question to ask is: how many games do you think the Nationals will win this season? 90? 95? 100?
Let’s assume the Nationals are the real deal and are on their way to 100 wins. That’s a .617 winning percentage. If they had a .617 winning percentage right now over their first 18 games they would be 11-7.
Rather than chasing their actual record of 14-4, chase 11-7 because that will eventually be their true pace. The Phillies at 9-10 would only be 2.5 games back of the 100-win Nats.
You could also look at it another way. If the Nats dropped down to that .617 winning percentage through the next 18 games they would have a total record of 22-14, meaning in their next 18 they would go 8-10. Now that's a manageable number. The Phillies would still have to go 13-4 to tie them, but again that’s assuming the Nationals win 100 games.
On a 95 win pace, the Nats would have a 21-15 record through their next 18 games and the Phillies would need to go 12-5 to catch them.
If the Nats are a 90 win team they would have a 20-16 record through their next 18 and the Phils would need to go 11-6 to tie them.
We hear it again, and again, and again, but it is only April and there are still over 140 games left this season. The Phillies obviously need to play better to even have a sniff of the postseason, so leave your focus there.
I should have never turned on that Phillies game
The pain of Phillies viewing has reached an all-time high. While suffering through six grueling innings last night (any longer and I would have tried out the noose in the garage for size), I was reminded of the latest South Park episode in which the boys nearly died of boredom while zip lining. Not realizing the danger they faced, thousands of Phillies fans across the Delaware Valley nearly faced the same death by boredom.
I’m hesitant to flip on the news for fear of countless stories of folks who attempted to watch the entire Phillies game and lost their lives in the process. Had the Phils not eventually scored 5 late runs, we might be looking at catastrophic death totals.
Let’s face it, the Phillies are a horrifically boring baseball team right now. When Victorino leads the team in homers and Freddy Galvis is tied for the team lead in doubles, your baseball team is as much fun as watching paint dry or flipping on X Factor. The Phillies can single a team to death, but they are third from the bottom in the league in homers and second to last in extra base hits and walks.
It’s enough to make you stare at the wall for fun, rip off your fingernails just to discover what it feels like, or listen to Bob Dylan for his beautiful voice.
There is a silver lining: at least we aren’t Pirates fans. Not only did Pittsburgh’s wimpy, whiny, hockey team get knocked around by the Flyers, but the Pirates are dead last in average, runs, hits, doubles, walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. The Buccos have five more RBIs as a team than Matt Kemp, eleven players have at least equaled the Pirates in home runs, and they have been out homered by four players.
Feel better?
John Mayberry hurting Phillies
A bulk of the Phillies offensive woes can be placed squarely upon the broad shoulders of John Mayberry. My hopes of a big year from Mayberry are quickly fading. The stats are not pretty: a .175 batting average with no homers and just two RBIs through the first 16 games. Stats like those will hurt any lineup. What destroys the Phillies lineup is his inability to even make productive outs.
Mayberry has been at the plate six times with a runner at third base and less than two outs. All he needs to do in that situation is hit a lazy fly ball or a weak grounder up the middle and a run scores. That should be a free run, and it is a free run 62 percent of the time on average in MLB. Yet out of those six opportunities, Mayberry has knocked in exactly zero runs. Over one run wasted per series is particularly painful for a Phillies offense that ranks 15 out of 16 in the National League.
Another troubling number is that Mayberry has not worked one walk all season. It’s an indication that the baseball looks like a marble to big John right now and it also blasts a gaping hole in the Phillies lineup.
A .175 average and 2 RBIs hurts the team no matter how you look at it, but if Mayberry could have just taken advantage of the easy scoring situations and worked a few walks, his slump would be far less impactful. If Mayberry was just near the MLB average success rate of 62% with a runner on third and less than two outs, he would have four more RBIs. And if he was right around the MLB average walk percentage of 8.9% he would have reached base three more times. So just by accepting free passes and hitting routine fly balls, Mayberry would have seven less at-bats (since neither counts as an AB) and he would improve his average 37 points to .212. Not a dazzling figure, but less repulsive.
The greater impact is on the team as a whole. The Phillies as an offense have scored three less runs than their opponents, but four easy RBIs from Mayberry would give the Phils one more run than their opponents. Three more walks is harder to quantify, but it is three less outs, three more base runners, and more stress on opposing pitchers.
That said, John Mayberry has been frighteningly inadequate through the first 15 games. We've seen pitchers routinely bust him inside, which is an expected adjustment for a young hitter to make and one that requires a bit of a long leash and a lot of patience from Charlie Manuel. But Major League hitters must be able to hit fastballs down the middle in predictable counts. Mayberry has not hit those pitches on countless occasions, and that is something Charlie cannot withstand much longer. If John Mayberry continues failing to perform the simplest of offensive tasks, he may find himself spending the rest of his career in minor league purgatory.
Move Mayberry to middle of lineup
It’s been a tough go so far for Ben Francisco…uh…I mean John Mayberry. Mayberry is hitting .219, has zero walks, one extra base hit, one RBI, and is still waiting for his first dinger. Maybe the overwhelming weight on his shoulders is getting to the young Phillies slugger. But there is a solution for that: move Mayberry to the middle of the lineup. Yes, you heard me right, moving Mayberry to the middle of lineup might just be just what he needs to get going.
This is Mayberry’s last chance to prove he is a big league starter. Mayberry knows it, Charlie Manuel knows it, Greg Gross knows it, even the guy in front of you in line at Wawa knows it. With little real major league experience, Mayberry is being asked to become the next Jayson Werth. It was obviously not a problem for Werth, so why not Mayberry?
There are two major differences between Werth’s situation and that of Mayberry's. First, Werth had a great opportunity to succeed while Mayberry has great pressure. Werth was a small piece of an offense that scored 892 runs in the previous year (2007). The Phillies counted on Utley, Howard, and Burrell to score runs and few of the eyes were on Werth. Mayberry’s team may struggle to score 600 runs and the Phillies are counting on Mayberry as a main piece to drive in runs. The spotlight is on Mayberry because he is essential to the success of the Phillies.
Secondly, Jayson Werth had Utley, Howard, and Burrell for protection. Granted, Werth generally batted directly after those players and didn’t have the advantage of, say, the lucky guy batting before Barry Bonds. But, following three power hitters isn’t exactly the worst place to live. Pitchers were willing to pitch around the big guys and take their chances with Werth, meaning Werth saw a lot of fastballs and predictable counts.
Pitchers have no reason to challenge John Mayberry in this lineup. As the only power threat in the bottom of the lineup, pitchers don’t want to get beat by Mayberry. They are quite content giving him slop and risking a walk rather than challenging him with a fastball. A walk is much better than a homer, and who’s gonna knock him in from first anyway?
That’s why Charlie needs to bat him third or fourth in the lineup in front of Hunter Pence. Putting Pence behind him is the only protection he can offer Mayberry. The Phillies have plenty of decent hitters, but none that cause fear in the opponent like Pence. Pitchers don’t want to nibble with Mayberry and risk facing Pence with an extra base runner, so they are more likely to give in with fastballs. Let's now examine each lineup scenario.
Bat Mayberry third: Mayberry is perfectly suited to bat third with his speed and the ability to hitter for average and power. It also allows Pence to remain in the cleanup spot. Rollins is not the ideal #3 hitter anyway and it gives Manuel more flexibility with the rest of the lineup.
Bat Mayberry fourth: Mayberry has shown enough power to hit fourth and Pence fits in just fine batting fifth. It allows Charlie to keep the top of the order intact and he has little juggling to do with the bottom of the lineup.
Moving Mayberry makes a lot of sense for the protection it offers, but it places even more pressure on him. It's possible he starts pressing even more and the plan totally backfires, but I think it's more important for Mayberry to see more fastballs and predictable counts. Once he knocks the ball around a few times, it might give him more confidence and allow him to adjust easier.
It's not going to happen, but it's an interesting thought.
Focus your worries on Phillies bullpen
With the Phillies offense providing plenty of reasons to worry, you may not have noticed another glaring issue lurking in the Phillies bullpen. The Phillies have a bullpen ERA of 4.35 in the first four games, and if we were to add the 2 unearned runs Stutes allowed, that number balloons to 6.09. The relief crew coughed up a one run lead on Saturday, blew a 4-1 lead on Sunday, and lost both games in extra innings.
The bullpen offers plenty of reasons to feel queasy. First, just look at the names:
Stutes
Bastardo
Kendrick
Herndon
Savery
Qualls
Papelbon
Outside of the $50 million man at the back end, none of the remaining 6 bullpen arms evokes feelings of any real confidence, or at least enough to safely vacate the couch to grab another beer from the fridge. Let's take a closer at why each Phillies reliever not named Papelbon should drive up your blood pressure slightly.
Michael Stutes
Stutes had a good rookie season, but I can’t help but notice the 3 runs in 1/3 of an inning in the playoffs, the 5.79 ERA in Spring Training, and the two runs (not earned) he yielded in his first outing. Stutes could easily be at least as effective as Chad Durbin was a few years ago, but he doesn’t keep me nausea free just yet.
Antonio Bastardo
After Papelbon, Antonio Bastardo has the best natural talent of all the relievers. However, Bastardo had an 11.05 ERA last September and his conflicting comments with Rich Dubee are what caught my attention. At the time, Bastardo admitted, "I need a rest right now" and "my arm's not hurt, it's just tired," while Dubee's response was plainly, “He’s not tired.” Bastardo's curious lack of velocity in spring training is also a bit concerning. Bastardo has a live arm and probably all of this means zilch, but let's see him prove it.
Kyle Kendrick
Kendrick was impressive last season and worth the $3 million he’ll make for each of the next two years. I have no real beefs with Kyle, but it takes more than one decent season to erase the memories of his Jekyll and Hyde performances over the years.
Chad Qualls
Qualls came in as the calming, veteran presence in the bullpen. Sounds nice in theory, but it’s not like we’re talking about Mariano Rivera here. I like his durability, as Qualls has appeared in at least 51 games in 7 full seasons, averages 73 games per year, and appeared in 77 games in 2011. But Qualls owns a mediocre 3.77 career ERA, his 3.51 ERA last year is not earth shattering, and he is one year removed from a 7.32 ERA. If you ask me, Qualls will be the biggest free agent bust (behind Laynce Nix and Ty Wigginton).
Joe Savery
We have to just wait and see with Joe Savery, but he probably won’t be around anyway once (wait…if) Contreras returns.
David Herndon
David Herndon is a nice kid with great sinking movement, but he has absolutely no idea where any single pitch will land. No offense to Herndon, but I would take nearly any of the minor league arms over him because he is simply not reliable. In fact, I would venture to say that Herndon is not on the roster at the end of the season.
Final Thoughts
It’s rare that you’ll find a team loaded with talent in their bullpen. I mean, let’s face it, these guys are probably relievers for a reason. That said, I just don't get a good feeling from this group. Lidge, Madson, Romero, and Durbin from 2008 sound a little better than Papelbon, Bastardo, Stutes, and Qualls, don't you think?
The silver lining to this doomsday scenario is that Jose Contreras might return soon and the Phillies have a stock of several nice arms in the minors. Hopefully they aren't all pitching by May...
Is Phillies offense really this bad?
14th in the National League with two runs per game. One home run and just 4 extra-base hits in four games. A .190 average with runners in scoring position. It doesn't take a math genius to see that this is not a winning formula.
Why is the offense this bad?
Has Ryan Howard's achilles injury created an offensive coronary? Do the Phillies lack the power to score runs? Are they not a small ball team? Or do the Phillies hitters just plain stink?
The answer is none of the above. As horrifying as it may be to watch, the Phillies are not as frightening an offense as they appear. The answer is as simple as this: the Phillies are in a hitting slump.
Through the first four games, most of the offense is hitting well below their career averages. Polanco is hitting 147 points below at .154, Pence is hitting 25 points below at .267, Rollins is hitting 12 points below at .250, and Pierre is hitting 74 points below at .222. In addition, Mayberry is hitting 23 points less than last season at .250, and Galvis is hitting .077 (he can't possibly be that bad).
My point here is that the Phillies just aren't hitting as a team right now. It can and will happen throughout the season, and it just so happens the time is now for the Phillies. Maybe we are witnessing a dead offense, but it's too early to make that diagnosis just yet.
One thing is clear, though. The Phillies need to hit much better and very quickly. The Phillies don't need home runs to win ball games with this pitching staff, but they have to improve dramatically in other areas. If the Phillies can work a few more walks and hit .280 with runners in scoring position, this terrible start will turn around in a week. The question is, are they capable doing that?
Was Opening Day a crystal ball for Phillies season?
Opening Day evoked Phillies fans' worst fears. Opening Day also stimulated Phillies fans' greatest dreams. The Phillies, in one Opening Day performance, shrink wrapped all of the discussion points of the entire offseason in a few hours in Pittsburgh. From the great pitching to the inept offense to the glimmer of hope from Mayberry, here are some of the hints the Phillies provided as to what we can expect this season.
The Positives
Starting Pitching
It's no secret that the success of the Phillies is based on their starting pitching. It's the reason they won 102 games last season and it's the reason they have a great chance in 2012. Roy Halladay reminded us of that fact on Opening Day with 8 shutout innings and just two hits against the Pirates. The Phillies offensive woes may not matter if Halladay, Lee, and Hamels can hold up their end of the bargain.
Jonathan Papelbon
It didn't take Jonathan Papelbon long to show why the Phillies were willing to spend $50 million on a guy who will pitch 70 innings at best this season. With no margin for error, Papelbon made it look easy on Thursday. He threw nothing but fastballs in a quick one-two-three ninth inning.
John Mayberry, Jr.
John Mayberry is a huge question mark for the Phillies this season. Will he be the player who hit .231 as of June 1st last year and spent most of his time travelling between Philadelphia and Lehigh Valley? Or will he be the player who hit .315 with 10 HR, 25 RBI, a .621 slugging percentage, and a .998 OPS after July 22? Mayberry helped answer that question on Thursday, as he went 2-for-4 and made two nice plays in left field in his first Opening Day start. If Opening Day was any indication, the Phillies found another Jayson Werth.
The Negatives
Freddy Galvis
Freddy Galvis showed why the Phillies wanted him on the roster to fill Chase Utley's shoes: defense. Galvis looked smooth and comfortable at second base and helped turn a nifty double play in the first inning to help Halladay out of a jam. But it was ugly at home plate. He went hitless, struck out once, and earned the distinction of being the 11th player in Major League History to hit into two double plays in his Major League debut. It's a truly meaningless piece of trivia, but it's a reminder that Galvis is no Chase Utley with the bat.
The Offense
BORING. If this is what the Phillies offense will be like, it's going to be a looong season. All of the offensive worries we could imagine were thrown in our face. One run, eight hits, no home runs, only one extra base hit, and two double-plays. Not exactly the start Charlie Manuel wanted.
These are not your older brother's 2008 Phillies. They are not as bad as they looked on Opening Day, but we can expect the Phillies will have to fight for every last run. Home runs have been replaced with bloop hits, infield singles, and sacrifice RBIs. Get used to it.
Final Word
I'm reading WAY too much into one game out of 162, but that's the fun of Opening Day. The Phillies gave us a glimpse of nearly everything we were thinking about at night and discussing at shady local bars in the winter. Should be an interesting season...
2012 Phillies predictions
Opening Day is upon us, so it is time for our 2012 Phillies predictions. If you haven't already, check out the predictions for pitching and hitting.
Phillies run differential
Wins and losses generally come down to run differential: how many more/less runs did you score than you gave up? Last year, the Phillies had a differential of +184, which was 101 runs more than the second best team. I like to start with a guesstimate of how many runs they will gain/lose at each position and go from there.
I expect roughly the same output in 2012 from Ruiz, Rollins, Polanco, and Victorino. Let’s say the Phillies lose 30 runs without Howard and 20 without Utley. Remember, these are just rough numbers. I expect Mayberry/Nix/Pierre to essentially equal Ibanez in runs (you heard me right - see John Mayberry projections) and gain 25 runs with a full year of Pence in right field. That’s a drop of 25 total runs as a team. That would give the Phillies 688 runs and would leave their NL ranking unchanged from last year at 7th place.
As far as the pitching is concerned, let’s assume no change with Halladay, Lee, and Hamels. In Worley’s spot, let’s say he gives up 10 more runs than last year's combo of Worley and Oswalt. In the number 5 spot, Blanton will give up roughly the same runs as Blanton/Kendrick last year. I have my concerns about the bullpen, so I’m gonna say the Phils give up 15 more runs in the bullpen. That’s a difference of 25 runs for a total of 554 runs given up, still leaving them with the best pitching in baseball.
With 25 less runs scored than last year (688 total) and 25 more given up (554 total), the Phillies would have a difference of +134 runs in 2012. That still puts them way above everyone else in the National League. Consider this: the Phils were +132 in 2010 and won 97 games. I won't go quite that far this year.
Phillies prediction: 94 wins
The offense is a bit scary right now, but the situation is not as bleak as you might think. Yes, the 2012 Phillies are missing Howard, Utley, and Oswalt, but they also gained Hunter Pence and Joe Blanton, and replaced Madson with an equally effective closer in Papelbon. The Phillies have a great leader in Charlie Manuel and team of hungry players anxious to prove they are still the best team in Major League Baseball. And, oh yeah, we still have three guys named Halladay, Hamels, and Lee.
The Phillies definitely took a step back, but considering the huge differential between the Phillies and the rest of the entire league, I don’t think the Phillies dropped far enough and the NL East improved by enough to knock the Phillies off their perch.
Overall Phillies Predictions
Record: 94-68
Hitting: WORSE
Starting Pitching: SAME
Bullpen: WORSE
Defense: SAME
NL East Divisional finish : 1st
Phillies final result: WORLD CHAMPS
Cy Young winner: Cole Hamels
Projecting John Mayberry in 2012
What can the Phillies expect from John Mayberry, Jr. in 2012? That may be the biggest question as the Phillies approach Opening Day. Following a forgettable minor league career, Mayberry was impressive for the entire second half of 2011. Can he do it again in for the Phillies in 2012?
Similar to Vance Worley, John Mayberry performed better in the majors than he did in the minors. Prorated over 162 games, here is how his 2011 MLB stats compare to his three years in the Phillies minor league system from 2009-2011:
| G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| Minors | 162 | 680 | 612 | 89 | 161 | 35 | 2 | 21 | 81 | 19 | 52 | 151 | .262 | .317 | .431 | 0.748 |
| Majors | 162 | 679 | 618 | 91 | 165 | 37 | 2 | 39 | 116 | 14 | 54 | 151 | .273 | .341 | .513 | 0.854 |
Mayberry's 2011 stats are eerily similar to his minor league numbers in most areas, but 18 more homers and 35 more RBIs is quite a jump. How can a player do in one major league season what he couldn't do in over five minor league seasons? The answer might be as simple as a new batting stance.
Mayberry’s new stance on life
A .231 batting average as of June 1st forced the Phillies to send Mayberry packing for Lehigh Valley. When he was recalled in July, he showcased a new batting stance which yielded starkly different results. From July 22nd on, Mayberry hit .315 with 10 HR, 25 RBI, a .621 slugging percentage, and a .998 OPS. To give you an idea just how impressive that is, look at it prorated over a full season:
| PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| Total since 7/22 | 138 | 124 | 23 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 13 | 24 | 3 | 2 | .315 | .377 | .621 | .998 |
| 162 Game Avg | 756 | 680 | 126 | 214 | 33 | 5 | 55 | 137 | 71 | 132 | 16 | 11 | .315 | .377 | .621 | .998 |
That's right, 55 home runs and 137 RBIs. Can a new batting stance really explain such a turnaround?! It’s actually not such a farfetched notion. John Mayberry is 6'6'', 230 lbs, and possesses a rare combination of power and speed. For an incredible athlete like that, it’s just a matter of finding a way to utilize his natural tools. The difference is small with a player like Michael Martinez, but the potential upside for Mayberry is enormous.
Coming out of Stanford, the Rangers liked his potential so much that they drafted him 19th overall in the 2005 draft and tossed him a $1.525 million signing bonus. As phuturephillies.com pointed out, Baseball America considered Mayberry “a legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter,” but to correct his hitting flaws “may take him 1,500 at-bats in the minor leagues." It ended up taking him 2,656 at-bats.
Let’s dive deeper into his stats to see what exactly he was doing that made him so successful. Here are how some of his advanced stats compare to the rest of the league.
| Contact% | K % | BB% | AB/HR | XBH% | SLG | OPS | |
| Mayberry | 77.10% | 18.6% | 8.8% | 17.8 | 11.2% | .513 | .854 |
| League avg | 80.70% | 18.6% | 8.1% | 35.0 | 7.6% | .399 | .720 |
Mayberry was close to the league average in making contact and identical in his strikeout percentage, which is impressive considering his power numbers. His HR rate, extra base hit rate, slugging percentage, and OPS are all WAY above the league average. Decent contact combined with exceptional power is a rare combination. That fact becomes clearer when we compare him to Ryan Howard in 2011:
| Contact% | K% | BB% | AB/HR | XBH% | AVG | SLG | OPS | |
| Mayberry | 77.1% | 18.6% | 8.8% | 17.8 | 11.2% | .273 | .513 | .854 |
| Howard | 67.2% | 26.7% | 11.6% | 16.9 | 9.9% | .253 | .488 | .835 |
On paper, John Mayberry was a better player than Ryan Howard. Mayberry made more contact, struck out less, hit for a higher average, and overall he hit for more power. I’m not saying John Mayberry is better than Ryan Howard…at least not yet. But Mayberry has all the tools to become a serious threat in the middle of the Phillies lineup and now he has the stats to back it up.
For our final comparison, we don't have to look hard to find another player in a nearly identical situation: Jayson Werth in 2007. They make for perfect comparables because they both are outfielders with decent size, strength, and speed. Better yet, Werth was just one year older with only 8 more at-bats than Mayberry. Here's how they compare:
| Year | Age | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| Mayberry | 2011 | 27 | 104 | 296 | 267 | 37 | 73 | 17 | 1 | 15 | 49 | 8 | 26 | 55 | .273 | .341 | .513 | .854 |
| Werth | 2007 | 28 | 94 | 304 | 255 | 43 | 76 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 49 | 7 | 44 | 73 | .298 | .404 | .459 | .863 |
The main figure to focus on here is their similar OPS, which essentially measures their total production. Werth was able to translate his production totals into all-star caliber success in the everyday lineup and there is no reason to believe Mayberry can't follow suit. Werth's example may be the best to project big things in the future for Mayberry.
Projecting John Mayberry in 2012
Although his poor statistics in over five years in the minors is cause for concern, Mayberry's continued production for nearly half a season was not just lucky. When a player is lucky, you can normally point to a large spike in one area. That wasn't the case with Mayberry. His contact percentage, strikeout rate, home run rate, and extra base hit rate show that he consistently improved his game in many areas.
Mayberry had the tools all along to be a superstar, but for whatever reason, it took him much longer than most to find his stroke. Now that he discovered the missing piece with his new batting stance, he has the opportunity to realize his full potential.
That said, my projection is that Mayberry will be the Phillies' regular left-fielder at year's end. He will be a huge part of the Phillies lineup in 2012 and will hit around .270 with at least 25 homers and close to 100 RBI's. Prove me right, Big John.
Here are Mayberry's full Major League Stats:
Year G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2009 39 60 57 8 12 3 0 4 8 2 23 .211 .250 .474 .724 27
2010 11 13 12 4 4 0 0 2 6 1 4 .333 .385 .833 1.218 10
2011 104 296 267 37 73 17 1 15 49 26 55 .273 .341 .513 .854 137
3 Yrs 154 369 336 49 89 20 1 21 63 29 82 .265 .328 .518 .846 174
162 Game Avg. 162 388 353 52 94 21 1 22 66 31 86 .265 .328 .518 .846 183
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 3/8/2012.
Cole Hamels ready to win 2012 Cy Young award
Hamels was born with a good fastball and one of the best changeups in the game, but in my mind the biggest reason to believe Hamels is a Cy Young candidate is that he is finally ready mentally. Cole proved in the 2008 postseason that he is not afraid of a little pressure. Those were the good times, but as they say in The Mental ABC’s of Pitching, "if you want to know who I am, watch me when things aren't going my way."
Things were not going Cole's way in 2009. Hamels experienced failure for the first time in his entire life that season and had no clue to handle it. His body language was terrible, he constantly complained to umpires, and in some cases he even showed up his teammates for fielding mistakes. Hamels was a textbook case of what not to do.
So, like any good pitcher, Hamels worked on his mental game. Even though his pitching was poor in April of 2010 and the boo birds visited in full force, Hamels hung in there. His demonstrated positive body language, did not complain to the umps, and never even once lashed out at the fans who booed him despite almost single handedly ending their championship drought two years earlier. Hamels stated in his recent press conference that "it really made me discover who I was. That was the best stepping stone I could ever have in my career to really dig down deep and work harder."
2010 provided more examples of his maturation. When the Phillies brought Cliff Lee back to town, Hamels was now considered the fourth best starter on his own team. That might have bothered the old Cole Hamels, but the new one didn’t notice. And he didn’t whine a bit when his team gave him no run support for the second straight season.
The best example of his maturity came in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Cardinals. The home plate umpire was squeezing him, the Cardinals were fouling off every pitch within a yard of the plate, and his pitch count rose exponentially. While I threw stuff at the TV, Hamels tuned out the frustration and maintained his cool in six of the toughest innings I can remember. As Hamels himself said, "I knew that every pitch mattered. Every inning mattered. We're not in our home park anymore. You definitely focus and try to dig deep."
New pitch, new pitcher
A 10-11 record and a 4.32 ERA in 2009 forced Hamels to add another pitch, a cutter, to his arsenal. After some early struggles in 2010 and a 4.08 ERA through June, he boasted a 2.28 ERA in the last three months. Last season, Hamels set career best marks for a season in ERA, CG, WHIP, H/9, HR/9, BB/9, and SO/BB ratio. In the year and a half since “mastering” the cutter, Hamels has a dazzling 2.61 ERA. That mark alone is better than four of the last eight Cy Young winners.
Can Hamels keep it going?
The question remains: is Hamels ready to take the next step towards becoming an elite pitcher? The numbers say Hamels is plenty capable of doing just that.
First of all, Hamels was consistent in 2011. Comparing his averages each month, his WHIP ranged from 0.80 to 1.11, his walks/9 from 1.3 to 2.1, and his hits/9 from 5.9 to 7.6. He was not just lucky.
His overall improvement compared to his career averages is also encouraging. His HR/9 improved from 1.09 to 0.79, his HR/FB from 11.5% to 9.9%, his extra base hit percentage from 8.1% to 6.2%, and his line drive percentage from 18.7% to 15%. Those increases suggest that hitters made weaker contact. Less line drives meant less quality hits and subsequently less extra base hits. Less home runs per fly balls meant he was likely jamming hitters more frequently and keep them off-balance more often.
His walks/9 also improved from 2.26 in his career to 1.83 in 2011, both well in line with Halladay's 1.35 and Lee's 1.62.
Bottom line: Cole Hamels has improved in nearly every facet of his game and that increase has been consistent.
Other factors
Hamels admitted himself during his recent press conference that his sports hernia and loose bodies in his elbow were "both uncomfortable." Common sense tells you that Hamels should pitch even better with those problems resolved.
Finally, how much better might Hamels be with a little run support?
A 2012 Cy Young award for Hamels is a reality
When I picked Hamels to win the Cy Young last year, it was little more than blind faith and hope since he had never performed at quite that level before. Now a year and a half of statistics exist to back up a Cy Young prediction.
I just hope he wins the award after the Phillies lock him up long term and not before the Yankees steal him in free agency.
What can Phillies expect from Vance Worley in 2012?
Vance Worley’s emergence on the MLB scene was easily one of the nicest surprises for the 2011 Phillies. But what kind of story will unfold for Worley in 2012? Worley went from mediocre minor leaguer to dominant major leaguer overnight, going 7-1 with a 2.02 ERA in his first 11 starts with the Phillies. Then he came back to Earth and finished with a 4.17 ERA in his final 12 games (2 in relief). So which character will Vance Worley play in 2012? Jekyll or Hyde?
A tale of two halves for Vance Worley
I think the key to determining Worley’s success in 2012 is to answer this question: why did his ERA increase by 2.15 runs from his first 11 games to his last 12? Logic would tell you that his luck ran out and hitters finally adjusted to the young righty. I would argue the opposite, that even while his ERA was skyrocketing, in many ways Worley was improving.
His control numbers are one area that improved. Worley threw 63.6% of his pitches for strikes in his first eleven games and 65.2% in his last twelve. His walks/9 decreased from 3.41 to 2.83, while his strikeouts per game rose from 6.69 to 9.85. That difference improved his strikeout to walk ratio from nearly 2:1 to nearly 4:1.
Since Worley was around the plate more, it stands to reason that hitters would make more contact. But that was not the case. His contact percentage against went from 87.2% to 87.1% and his swing and miss percentage only changed from 43.1% to 41.6%.
Reasons for Worley's inflated ERA
If his strikeouts increased, walks decreased, and batters made just as much contact, what caused Worley’s ERA to double?
One reason is a spike in his home run rate. Worley's home run/fly ball rate during his hot stretch was 2.6%, which is less than 3 home runs per 100 fly balls and way below the MLB average of 9.6%. Worley probably deserves some credit for keeping the ball in the yard, but even Hall of Fame pitchers have not maintained such an obscenely low rate.
A few percentage points makes a significant difference. If Worley had equaled the MLB average, he would have tossed 8 more home run balls. If each homer scored 1.5 runs, that equals 12 more runs and his ERA would have increased 1.52 points to 3.54.
Secondly, as Corey Seidman pointed out, Worley's line drive percentage increased by 16 percentage points. Line drives result in hits 73% of the time versus 23% for grounders, which might explain why his batting average against rose from .199 to .278. More line drives indicate batters were seeing the ball better. Worley might have thrown the same amount of strikes, but hitters were making better contact on the balls they hit.
The luck factor
It is also quite possible that more homers, more line drives, and a higher ERA is more of a factor of luck than anything else. Three stats and some sabermetrics help account for the luck factor.
LOB (Left On Base)%
Worley's LOB% was 79.9% in the first half and 76.2% in the second half, both just slightly higher than the MLB average of 72.5%. Worley's high LOB demonstrates his mental toughness and ability to handle adverse situations. It’s also good to see a reasonable number here, because too many weird things happen in the game of baseball to expect any pitcher to maintain an abnormally high rate.
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play)
BABIP is just what it sounds like, the opponents batting average on balls hit between the white lines. For the game of inches that baseball is, anything drastic on either side should raise a red flag. Worley's BABIP went from .268 in his first 11 to .304 in his last 12. Both are within the range of the MLB average of .291 and it shows how his fortune may have changed throughout the year.
FIP (Fielding Indeterminate Pitching)
FIP is supposed to be the ultimate non-luck stat, determining what a pitcher's ERA would be in a luck-neutral environment by excluding defense and game situations. It theoretically tells you what a pitcher’s ERA should be. Worley's FIP in his first eleven games was 3.36 and his last twelve it was 3.29.
Vanimal’s FIP seems to validate the rest of his numbers. We saw that even though his ERA ballooned, batters weren’t behaving much differently at the plate and Worley was walking less and striking out more. His FIP reflected that, suggesting that he was much more consistent than his ERA indicated. At the end of the day, Worley's fortune evened out over the entire season and his overall ERA of 3.01 was close to his FIP of 3.32.
What does this all mean for Worley in 2012?
Worley maintained a consistent approach of throwing strikes and trusting the defense behind him. As much as we might be inclined to focus on his ballooning ERA and assume hitters figured him out, most of the stats don't endorse that idea. There is no reason to expect Vance Worley can't replicate his performance on the mound next season. If he brings the same game next season, we should see an ERA around 3.50.
However...
If Worley wants to remain in the big leagues, he needs another pitch. Worley caught batters looking on his two-seamer that ran back across the plate for called third strikes, but he didn't induce many whiffs for strike three. In order to survive, Worley must find a put away pitch. He needs a pitch with some bite like a slider or something that can fool them like a nasty curve or a changeup.
Hitters will adjust to Worley. Now he needs to adjust to them.
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